10 Years Later: The Legacy of the Arab Spring

By Emraan Ansari, National Interest Foundation

Introduction

Ten years ago, the Arab Spring swept across North Africa and the Middle East. To date, it remains the region’s preeminent pro-democracy movement. Fueled by mass popular demonstrations – which began in Tunisia before spreading to Egypt, Libya, and beyond – ordinary citizens protested against the reign of despots who had held a stranglehold over their respective countries for decades. The popular protests were largely successful in ousting autocratic leaders, but the legacy of the pro-democracy movement in the period after the dictators fell remains unsettled. The circumstances that preceded the Arab Spring uprisings in each country meant that change was necessary, as the political and societal conditions across the Arab World became untenable. However, on the ten-year anniversary of the movement, several countries remain mired in war, civil unrest, and economic uncertainty.

Build-Up to Revolution

The Arab Spring is widely attributed to have begun in Tunisia in December of 2010. The country’s “Jasmine Revolution” laid the groundwork for popular protests to ignite against autocratic leaders across the Arab World. President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali had ruled Tunisia with an iron fist for 23 years, and was considered a stabilizing presence in the region, having allowed an image of political pluralism while keeping Tunisia out of regional conflicts. However, severe unemployment, poor living conditions, and corruption plagued the country. In the months preceding the Jasmine Revolution, unemployment had risen to 14%, and inflation soared on everyday items. Young people were struck particularly hard by rampant unemployment, as the majority of recent university graduates were unable to find jobs. Additionally, corruption and nepotism by Ben Ali and his inner circle was rife, as the president’s associates took advantage of the murky line delineating business from politics. An American diplomatic cable leaked by WikiLeaks detailed the extent to which Tunisia’s elite were corrupt, and heavily criticized the Ben Ali regime for their repression of Tunisians. When the document was made public, the public erupted with anger. Tunisia’s situation finally combusted when a street vendor set himself on fire outside of a government building to protest Tunisia’s economic conditions. The self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, now referred to as the father of the Tunisian revolution, served as a catalyst for protests across the country, which began on December 19th, 2010.

Following Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution, Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak watched as young Egyptians brought the country to a standstill through mass demonstrations demanding his ouster. Following the example set by Tunisians, mass protests were organized that demanded better living conditions. Young Egyptians felt their future prospects were being diminished by a corrupt Mubarak regime that had destroyed Egypt’s economy beyond repair. Poverty was a major catalyst behind Egypt’s uprising, with modest government estimates citing nearly 17% of the population was at or below the poverty line. Mubarak also installed business leaders into parliamentary positions which blurred the lines between the private and public sector, feeding into the disdain with the levels of corruption under his regime. Additionally, political freedom was repressed by Mubarak’s oppressive security forces who were widely known to have committed severe human rights violations. As a way of embodying the public opposition to Mubarak’s police and security forces, mass demonstrations were strategically planned to begin on Egypt’s national day of celebrating the police. Thus, Egypt’s revolution is often referred to as the “January 25th Revolution.”

Pro-democracy protests broke out in Libya just after those in Egypt, in early February of 2011. Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi had ruled the country for over 40 years, during which time he eliminated all meaningful political opposition, imprisoned scholars and dissenters, and used security forces to commit severe offences against human rights. In his infamous “Little Green Book,” Gaddafi made the case that all of Libya’s citizens were equally entitled to Libya’s resources. In practice however, Gaddafi and his inner circle made all relevant decisions for the country, and Libya’s elected representatives were de facto figureheads with no real say in the country’s governance. This lack of political independence was a catalyst in the popular protests that eventually led to Gaddafi’s demise, as was the regime’s repeated human rights violations. The government under Gaddafi valued Libyan national security as one of its most important priorities, and the authorities clamped down on dissent through draconian security laws. Minor offenses were met with major repercussions which led to a high number of political prisoners. In 1996, the Libyan authorities systematically murdered over 1,200 prisoners at Abu Salim prison, most of whom were imprisoned for political reasons. This massacre is seen as a tipping point for some Libyans who ended up supporting the revolution some 15 years later. Indeed, the major catalyst for Libya’s popular protests was the detention of a human rights advocate who was representing families of the prisoners killed during the Abu Salim massacre.

Away from North Africa, Arab Spring protests also broke out in Syria in March of 2011 when pro-democracy demonstrators rose up to demand the resignation of strongman leader Bashar al-Assad. Assad had risen to power in 2000, succeeding his father Hafez, who had ruled Syria since 1971. Syria’s one-party system left no room for political opposition, and Assad consolidated power and wealth among his inner circle. Several issues led to the outbreak of protests in Syria, including state-led violence against citizens and governmental corruption. Prior to the uprising, Bashar al-Assad had tried to increase the levels of privatization in Syria’s economy. This led to privileged elites with ties to the Assad regime reaping the benefits at the expense of ordinary citizens. Additionally, the actions of the Syrian military to fire on peaceful protesters in the city of Deraa brought a full-on revolution, where the repercussions are still being felt today.

The Arab Spring protests spread as far as Yemen, where in the early months of 2011, then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh faced popular protests to resign, and ended up plunging the country into a disastrous civil war. The root causes of the Yemeni uprising were corruption by the Saleh government, the marginalization of political opposition, economic disenfranchisement, and the presence of extremist organizations. At the time of the Arab Spring, Yemen was one of the poorest countries in the world, and the Saleh government was ineffective at providing for the needs of its citizens. President Saleh had also installed family members into key government positions, which meant he had full control of Yemen’s most important sectors, including the state oil ministry, security agencies, and army. Additionally, extremist organizations such as Al Qaeda had taken advantage of the weak Saleh regime to gain a foothold in the country, which further destabilized it. The Saleh government also repressed political opposition by Yemen’s Shia minority, the Houthis, who had orchestrated several uprisings prior to 2011, all of which were put down. Saleh had relied on an intricate system of bribery to keep the country together under his rule, but the Tunisian Revolution and corresponding uprisings in other Arab nations destroyed this patronage system and catalyzed Yemenis to demand an end to his rule.

While each country’s road to revolution during the Arab Spring was unique, most of them had a common denominator: an autocratic government that failed to provide for the basic needs of its citizens, coupled with a lack of political representation and the stifling of dissent. The causes behind each country’s uprising meant that maintaining the political status quo was not an option. Whether it was because of human rights abuses, state corruption, or economic depression, the Arab Spring uprisings were spurred on by these elements and laid the groundwork for the future prospects of each country. However, progress has been slowed in several of them due to a variety of factors.

Major Revolutions and Their Legacy

Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution was the first Arab Spring uprising that resulted in the ouster of an autocratic leader. Following Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation, mass protests occurred across the country as Tunisians demanded solutions to the country’s rampant unemployment and dire economic situation. Over the next month, security forces loyal to President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali cracked down on the protesters, with estimates of 1,000 casualties, including 300 deaths. After just under a month of incessant demonstrations, Ben Ali abandoned power and fled to Saudi Arabia.

Since the Jasmine Revolution, Tunisia has been heralded as one of the Arab Spring’s greatest success stories, but problems still remain in the country. Following Zine el Abidine Ben Ali’s ouster, Tunisia rewrote its constitution, increased transparency in its political institutions, and fostered a vibrant civil society. All of these actions led to the foundation of a stable democracy in Tunisia. However, some of the issues that led to the revolution in the first place still exist. Unemployment, particularly among young university graduates, remains unsustainably high. Additionally, between 2012 and 2017, Tunisia’s corruption index only improved by a single point, indicating that the corrupt system built by Ben Ali and his cronies was still largely intact. While Tunisia’s revolution served to establish a more transparent, democratic system of government, the economic woes of Tunisians have continued. As a result, questions remain over the legacy of Tunisia’s revolution, despite its success in certain aspects.

Inspired by the events in Tunisia, Egypt’s Arab Spring revolution followed not long after. Egyptians demonstrated for 18 straight days, beginning on January 25th, 2011, against the reign of Hosni Mubarak. Protesters cited the Mubarak regime’s corruption, autocracy, and mismanagement of the country’s economy as their reasons for demanding his ouster. Mubarak, who had clung to power for 30 years, was initially unwilling to give up power in the face of mass protests. He ordered Egypt’s security forces to disperse the protests through any means necessary, which culminated in the deaths of over 850 people. Tahrir Square in Cairo became the symbolic home of the revolution, as protesters clashed with pro-Mubarak mobs and security forces. In early February, after 18 days of protests, Mubarak finally resigned and handed power to Egypt’s military, who pacified demonstrators by committing to hold elections.

In Egypt’s first democratic elections in 30 years, Mohamed Morsi was elected. After being elected, Morsi took measures to curb the military’s influence, such as replacing several high-ranking officers. At first, this was welcomed by Egypt’s revolutionaries who viewed his actions as progressive. However, Morsi soon incited the wrath of Egyptians by attempting to force through constitutional amendments to increase his power. Morsi also oversaw the continuation of Egypt’s economic decline during his time in power, which was marked by fuel and electric shortages. As a result of his failings, thousands of Egyptians again took to the streets to protest his rule, and he was removed by the military, led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi then won power after the military called for elections, where he remains today. However, Sisi’s actions since becoming Egypt’s president has drawn condemnations, as he has repeated some actions taken by Mubarak. For example, political dissent is nullified, journalistic freedom is nonexistent, and human rights abuses are rife. The Sisi regime is largely propped up by funding from wealthy Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who overlook Sisi’s autocracy in favor of political stability in Egypt. Ten years after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster, Egypt finds itself still ruled by an autocrat, despite the initial success of the Arab Spring uprising in the country.

Libya’s Arab Spring uprising began in February of 2011, after the military fired on protesters calling for the ouster of longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Gaddafi made no attempt to appease demonstrators, and vowed to crush resistance to his rule. He ordered his security services to disperse demonstrators by any means necessary, which included using live ammunition. After several weeks of demonstrations, Gaddafi began losing support from elements of the military and his cabinet who opposed using violence against civilians. Several individuals in Gaddafi’s inner circle defected, which was evidence that he was quickly losing support. In mid-March of 2011, the United Nations invoked the body’s responsibility to protect for the first time in history, when it authorized intervention in Libya to protect civilians from the Gaddafi regime. Libya’s uprising was one of the only Arab Spring uprisings in which outside actors became involved in. Anti-Gaddafi militias were also formed, which turned Libya’s uprising into a quasi-civil war involving several different factions. NATO forces worked with numerous anti-Gaddafi militias in Libya, and after several months, Gaddafi was captured and killed by one of these militias outside his hometown of Sirte.

Since the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya split into factions, with two competing governments fighting a bloody civil war. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is based in Tripoli, and is the internationally recognized government of Libya. However, it is rivalled by a Tobruk-based House of Representatives and an allied fighting force, the Libyan National Army (LNA). The House of Representatives never recognized the GNA because it views the government as being controlled by the international community instead of by Libyans. House Speaker Aguila Saleh appointed rogue warlord Khalifa Haftar to lead the Libyan National Army and overthrow the GNA. Throughout the war, Haftar’s forces have committed war crimes, which have delegitimized the LNA’s standing in the view of the international community and made the prospects for reconciliation significantly harder. Additionally, the presence of several outside actors have complicated the Libyan conflict, and prolonged the violence. Recently, after five years of fighting, the Libyan army was successful in forcing the LNA and the House of Representatives into negotiations to end the conflict. Now, a decade after Gaddafi’s demise, Libyans have the prospects for a democratic process that they sought in the first place, with a transitional coalition government selected and elections scheduled for December 2021.

Syria’s Arab Spring uprising and the subsequent events after its conclusion are some of the most complex of the entire era. The uprising began after the Syrian military fired on peaceful protesters in the city of Deraa in early 2011. Protesters were initially demonstrating against the detention and torture of several youths who had graffitied public walls with anti-regime phrases. Seeking to crush the Arab Spring movement in Syria before it truly began, authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad approved the use of lethal force against protesters. However, this backfired as it only strengthened the resolve of the demonstrators in demanding his resignation. As the protests spread across Syria, to Damascus, Homs, and Hama, the movement fractured into an armed rebellion in response to the violence perpetrated by the Assad regime. Similarly to Libya, this ignited a widescale conflict in Syria, one that is ongoing to this day.

Syria’s path since the Arab Spring protests has been marked by bloodshed and brutal conflict. The Assad regime twice came close to being ousted by rebels, but both times was able to cling to power, largely on the back of foreign patrons such as Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Over the course of the conflict, nearly 400,000 people have been killed, including over 115,000 civilians. Violence against civilians has become a tenet of the Syrian conflict, with the Assad regime accused of using chemical weapons against them and indiscriminately targeting civilian areas with bombing campaigns. As violence against civilians rose, so did the presence of extremist groups in Syria. Daesh took over large swaths of territory and established a caliphate of terror, and Al Qaeda’s presence in the country grew. The Syrian conflict quickly morphed into a three-pronged crisis between the Assad regime, rebels, and extremist groups, all of which were receiving support from outside actors. All the while, civilians encompassed a disproportionate amount of the total casualty count from the fighting. Today, the Assad government controls almost the entire country, with a singular rebel enclave still holding out. Despite this, the anti-regime sentiment in Syria that began the revolution a decade ago still remains.

Following the path taken by Libya and Syria, Yemen’s Arab Spring unrest resulted in a gruesome civil war, and an accompanying humanitarian crisis that the United Nations has called the gravest in the world. Protests broke out in Yemen during January of 2011 that called for longtime autocrat Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down amid rampant public sector corruption and widescale economic ruin. In an attempt to appease the protesters, Saleh agreed to not run for re-election. However, that did not satisfy the youth-led Arab Spring movement, and demonstrations spread throughout the country. In a desperate attempt to cling to power, Saleh ordered the protests be suppressed with force, which resulted in thousands of casualties. A deal mediated by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was agreed in April 2011 that would have seen Saleh hand over power. At the last second however, Saleh refused to sign the agreement and pledged to carry on as president. However, Saleh’s mind was changed in the aftermath of a unanimous UN Security Council declaration calling on him to resign. The UN threatened to impose sanctions on Saleh and his inner circle, whereas the deal negotiated with the GCC protected him from prosecution. Faced with a choice between these two outcomes, Saleh opted for the latter. He officially stepped aside in November 2011, handing power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

Despite Saleh handing power over to Hadi, Yemen remained in a state of turmoil brought on by the instability caused by the Arab Spring protests. In 2014, Saleh partnered with the country’s Zaidi Shia minority to try and overthrow the Hadi government, citing its leadership failings. Yemenis had largely lost confidence in the Hadi government because of a secessionist movement in the south, an Al Qaeda-led extremist insurgency, and a public health emergency. This plunged the country into a civil war that is ongoing to this day. The Houthi rebels, who champion the Zaidi Shia minority, drew wide public support against the Hadi government, which was largely viewed as having the same problems as the Saleh government it succeeded. By early 2015, the Houthis had captured the capital Sanaa and were threatening to take control of the entire country, which forced Hadi into exile in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia then formed a coalition to enter the Yemeni civil war and restore the Hadi government. However, the Saudi-led coalition underestimated the resolve and fighting ability of Yemen’s rebels, and failed to make significant progress despite several years of fighting. The Saudis and their allies have also been accused of committing egregious war crimes during their campaign in Yemen. The civil war in Yemen is ongoing today, with the entrance of outside actors such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates adding to the violence and needless bloodshed. The United Nations has called the humanitarian situation in Yemen the gravest in the world, and estimates up to 80% of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance.

Additional Uprisings

Arab Spring uprisings occurred in several additional countries, although the outcomes were radically different than those in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. In Morocco, protests broke out demanding constitutional reforms that would put greater political authority in the hands of elected officials. Unlike other Arab Spring uprisings, the demonstrations didn’t call for the ouster of Morocco’s popular leader, King Mohamed VI. King Mohamed heeded the calls for reform, and oversaw a rewrite of Morocco’s constitution, which largely satisfied protesters. Today, King Mohamed remains popular in Morocco, and the country has been largely insulated from outside turmoil in the region.

Similarly, in Lebanon, protests inspired by the Arab Spring broke out in April of 2011, but the demonstrations did not seek to topple an authoritarian leader. Instead, Lebanon’s protests targeted the country’s system of religious confessionalism, which is a national system of power sharing based on religious affiliation. Anti-sectarian demonstrations in Lebanon remained peaceful, with protesters seeking the establishment of a secular state.

In Kuwait, protesters demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah over allegations of corruption. The demonstrations turned violent when crowds stormed the country’s parliament. A crackdown by the authorities followed, and dozens of people were later arrested for their role in the dissent.

Finally, Arab Spring protests occurred in Bahrain, and like the events in Kuwait, the demonstrations turned violent before being brutally suppressed. Bahrainis protested the rule of the Al Khalifa monarchy, and wanted an elected parliament and new constitution. The monarchy forcibly suppressed the demonstrations, and have continued to repress dissent since the uprising. Today, political dissidence is not tolerated in Bahrain, which has turned into one of the most reclusive states in the world.

Conclusion

The success of the Arab Spring uprisings and its ultimate legacy remains disputable. While countries such as Egypt and Libya were successful in ousting autocratic leaders, the fallout from their revolutions has left the countries in a precarious situation. In Syria and Yemen, the uprisings only succeeded in bringing additional turmoil. However, despite the questionable efficacy of the Arab Spring uprisings in bringing democracy to the region, maintaining the political status quo in the face of human rights violations, corruption, and other abuses perpetrated by autocrats became untenable. On the ten-year anniversary of the Arab Spring, several countries remain entangled in turmoil but the regionwide impact of the uprisings has also allowed for some positive concessions to be made in other places as well.