The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 240, June 12, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s edition, we analyze the far-right gains made in recent European elections, look into the United Nations adding Israel to its list of offenders committing violations against children, and examine why the effort to spur Saudi-Israeli normalization is a nonstarter that has zero benefits for the United States.

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The Far-Right Makes Gains in Recent European Elections

The Far-Right Makes Gains in Recent European Elections

European Parliament elections commenced on the 6th of this month, and the shake-up of the EU’s 720-seat body has significantly altered the political landscape of Europe. The once centrist parliament now bears a right-leaning tilt, a testament to the substantial gains made by major parties such as the German Alternative for Germany (AFD) and French National Rally (RN). This trend of far-right party ascension, prevalent in most of the 27 participating countries, provides a clear indication of the potential outcomes in future domestic elections.

Most notably, France’s President Emmanuel Macron saw more losses for his party, which has been under siege due to a lack of addressing issues of value to voters. The National Rally Party took home nearly 40% of the vote, which spurred Macron to immediate action. In an unexpected move, the French PM dissolved France’s National Assembly to hold a special vote slated to occur on June 30th and July 7th. This decision comes after persistent criticism of Macron from French voters due to unpopular policy decisions that have dissatisfied much of the country. In his address to the French people shortly after the EU parliament vote closed, Macron stated “I have heard your message, and I will not let it go without a response.” The planned election appears to be an attempt to avoid a complete freeze of the French government due to conflicting views on the country’s governance. It has the potential to completely change France’s stance on both foreign and domestic policy. This move comes at a tremendous risk to Macron, who has three years left in office. The National Rally Party, headed by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has captured the attention of French voters and has become a powerhouse in the European Union. With Bardella serving as president and Marine La Pen heading the party in the EU and national assembly, the right-leaning party has made notable gains in recent years. With the upcoming vote in the national parliament and the recent victory in the EU, the RN appears to be highly confident in its ability to retain and increase its political standing in France after the upcoming vote. The party currently leads the charge on anti-immigration, which has a long history of accusations of xenophobia despite Bardella’s predecessor’s (Marine La Pen) past efforts to shift the party closer to the center.

France is not the only member of the European Union experiencing a domestic shake-up following the recent EU election. Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo stepped down after his party’s complete loss, and center-right parties took up positions nationwide. Germany also saw a political change, with the scandal-plagued AFD taking second place. Other countries, such as Italy, saw the Brothers of Italy led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and their right-leaning parties gain better footholds. The Brothers of Italy Party managed to rake in 28% of the Italian vote, an increase from the previous 26% back in 2022. This has helped further solidify Meloni’s place as a leader in the EU Parliament.

The power shift in Germany comes with significant concerns for many Germans who have been participating in protests against the party following a slew of controversies surrounding the AFD. These concerns come as no surprise, considering the news surrounding the party and its leaders, who have found themselves in sticky situations after scandals led to the party being ejected from the EU’s ID party. Spying allegations, foreign influence scandals, Nazi sympathy, and ‘secret’ discussions about deporting immigrants have all drawn controversy for the AFD. On the surface, the AFD appears to be a party ripe with thinly veiled extremism, and its increased ability to influence the European Union is worthy of skeptical observation.

The major gains for the center and alt-right parties of Europe, leading to nearly 50% of the EU Parliament being controlled by right and far-right-leaning ones, are likely to lead to increased cooperation between centrist parties and conservatives. This shift of power has potentially far-reaching implications for the whole of the continent, particularly regarding pertinent contemporary issues such as the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, the approach to climate, and immigration policy.

The United Nations Adds Israel to Its List of Offenders Committing Violations Against Children

The United Nations Adds Israel to Its List of Offenders Committing Violations Against Children

Every year, the United Nations publishes a report that specifically focuses on children in conflict zones called Children and Armed Conflict Report, and this year Israel will be named on the list for the first time. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan recently on June 8th to inform Erdan of his decision to include Israel in the yearly report. The Children and Armed Conflict Report started back in 2000 under Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and has continued every year since. The UN recognizes “six grave violations” against children as the most prevalent: the killing and maiming of children, the recruitment or use of children as soldiers, sexual violence against children, the abduction of children, attacks against schools or hospitals, and the denial of humanitarian access for children.

The report starts with a brief overview and introduction of the general state of armed conflicts that include children. This includes the total number of grave violations that the UN has verified, as well as the progress that was made since the last report’s publishing. From there, every country that the Secretary-General has selected gets further broken down based on their specific number of verified violations and then what actors (state or non-state) they have been attributed to. Finally, in the annex, countries are further divided into those that have and have not put in place measures to improve the protection of children. Several high-profile organizations and countries have made the list that Israel is now set to join including the Taliban, Boko Haram, and ISIS. Following the 2014 Gaza War, which resulted in the deaths of over 2,000 Palestinians, Israel was almost placed on the list but narrowly avoided it due to lobbying efforts by its representatives.

The reaction from Israel has unsurprisingly been anything but positive. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Erdan took to X on June 7th to share a video of his response to the official notification that the IDF was going to be placed on the “blacklist.” When speaking to reporters, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s spokesperson Stephane Dujarric explained that the reason Israel was notified in advance of the list’s publication next week was as “a courtesy afforded to countries that are newly listed on the annex.” Meanwhile, Palestinian officials and human rights defenders praised the UN’s decision, expressing that it provides proof to the world that Israel’s military operations in Gaza have targeted non-combatants such as children. Others added that while the move will not bring back the tens of thousands of innocent civilians that have been killed in Gaza, it is at least an important step in the right direction toward ending the double standard and culture of impunity that Israel has benefited from for far too long.

While the significance of the decision to add Israel to the list has been rightly acknowledged, it is important to also note that the move holds no exacting power. A country’s inclusion on the list does not mean that the UN will be able to pursue specific action against them. For example, Russia earned its spot on the list last year because of its detaining, killing, and maiming of Ukrainian children but the UN took no formal action against it. However, the list can be brought up during UN meetings, and since all of the information is verified by the UN, it has the potential to be cited as a reason to take legal action against a particular country.

The inclusion of Israel in the United Nations Children and Armed Conflict Report for the first time underscores the grave concerns surrounding the treatment of children in conflict zones, especially during the ongoing conflict in Gaza where investigators have shed light on the alarming number of children that have been killed or injured there. Israel’s inclusion only serves as further evidence of the egregious human rights abuses and war crimes that they have committed in Gaza, and should bolster the importance of putting an end to the devastating war and protecting children, the most vulnerable victims who deserve safeguarding above all.

The Effort to Spur Saudi-Israeli Normalization is a Nonstarter That Has Zero Benefits for the U.S.

The Effort to Spur Saudi-Israeli Normalization is a Nonstarter That Has Zero Benefits for the U.S.

The United States is working towards a security agreement with Saudi Arabia, attempting to fulfill a top foreign policy goal of U.S. President Biden. Recent reports have indicated that the United States is seeking to offer the landmark defense treaty in an effort to propel a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, fair-minded analysts have highlighted how the pursuit of a normalization deal is a nonstarter which lacks viability and is clearly aimed at achieving a “diplomatic win,” since one of the main conditions for it – a credible pathway to a Palestinian state – is something that Israeli officials have consistently opposed. In the absence of the honoring of a laid-out component such as this, the effort to initiate normalization is merely for show and has zero benefits for the United States. It appears that the Biden administration has long set its sights on trying to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but similarly to the justifiably criticized Abraham Accords under Former President Trump, any potential agreements which fail to include fair Israeli concessions to Palestinians are not meaningful advancements towards peace and stability in the region.

Some issue experts surmise that President Biden is seeking to initiate Saudi-Israeli normalization in the hopes that it would act as a bargaining chip with Israel and help put an end to the destructive Gaza War. Biden officials have contended that previous efforts to institute normalization were derailed by the Hamas attacks of October 7th. The U.S.-Saudi pact that is currently being pursued includes a series of deals ranging from defense agreements, nuclear cooperation, attempts to normalize diplomatic engagement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a hopeful route to Palestinian statehood. It would guarantee Saudi Arabia U.S. protection and grant them additional access to American weaponry. The Middle Eastern nation would be required to cease arms purchases from China and diminish Chinese investment in the country, while the U.S. would assist Riyadh with the progression of its civilian nuclear program as well. According to observers, one of the key interests of the U.S. with the deal is to try and prevent further Chinese influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has demonstrated a willingness to engage with both global powers and attempt to use coordination with one as leverage with the other. China’s largest source of petroleum is Saudi Arabia, and it is also its lead trading partner in the Middle East. Both regimes also have extremely poor human rights records as well.

Even if a U.S.-Saudi deal is agreed to that includes potential Israeli normalization, the conditions do not exist for the parties involved to honor their supposed commitments. Thus, the pact has been labeled by many as a nonstarter since a credible pathway towards a Palestinian state is claimed to be necessary to move things forward – something that Israeli officials are adamantly against. As such, the agreement will likely result in an unequal commitment to security responsibilities for the United States, coupled with a lack of alteration in Saudi polices relating to China and oil production. Saudi Arabia does not have the same military capacities to reciprocate equal security responsibilities.

Furthermore, the ideals and principles that the United States espouses are not embodied by the Saudi Arabian regime. Crown Prince Salman has proven to be an unreliable security companion, and his record consists of imprisoning fellow government officials, ordering the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and supporting Russian efforts to counter American initiatives. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) emphasized that it is unlikely Congress would support “our most sacred national security commitment to a repressive, despotic regime.” Approval from the U.S. Senate is required for the agreements to be actually implemented. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is pushing to finalize the pact, as there is little time remaining in the Congressional schedule. Many Congressional Democrats in particular are hesitant of the potential deal due to the Saudi government’s history of human rights violations. As analysts have pointed out, the previous Trump administration was able to move Israeli-Arab normalization forward because the parties involved ignored the Palestinian statehood issue, but that appears to have changed following the onset of the destructive War on Gaza.