The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 248, August 9, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s edition, we analyze some of the latest polling for the 2024 U.S. presidential race including in key swing states, delve into the problem with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) introduction of a bill calling for the United States to use military force against Iran on behalf of Israel in light of the latter’s bellicose behavior, and examine how thousands of anti-racism protesters have taken to the streets across the United Kingdom to counter bigoted far-right rioters.

Editor: Bassam Tarbush

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Analysis on Latest Polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race Including in Key Swing States

Analysis on Latest Polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race Including in Key Swing States

It has now been nearly three weeks since U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, and things have begun to subsequently take shape. Following the move, Biden endorsed U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic Party’s nominee, and she has officially secured the necessary delegate votes in order to win the nomination while also selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Even prior to the formalizing of this, Harris already stood as the presumptive nominee after she faced no serious challengers and the Democratic Party coalesced around her. Officials are still set to hold a symbolic roll call vote during the upcoming Democratic National Convention between August 19th and August 22nd in Chicago as well, in which state delegations will announce their votes for the Harris-Walz ticket from the floor. Given the weeks-long assumption that Vice President Harris would be the 2024 presidential nominee, new polling had started to be conducted in the aftermath of President Biden’s exit from the race. Many of these show that Democrats have gained some momentum behind Harris in the matchup against Former President Donald Trump, with the race being extremely tight, including in several key swing states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election.

The latest presidential polling carried out between late July and the early part of this month has Harris holding a very slim lead over Trump across many national poll aggregators. According to reputable aggregators like RealClearPolitics (RCP), FiveThirtyEight, and others, most of the recent national polls find Harris with a marginal advantage ranging between one and four percentage points, but polls in the critical battleground states show a more mixed picture. Based on FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages in some of these important swing states, Trump leads Harris by four points in Georgia and two points in Arizona, while Harris leads by two points in Michigan, one in Pennsylvania, and one-and-a-half in Wisconsin. Back in 2020, President Biden edged out Former President Trump in all five of these states and was thus able to win the presidency, a complete reversal from the 2016 general election in which Trump carried all of them and defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The consequential role that the outcomes in these states played in the last two presidential elections cannot be understated, and therefore, they are justifiably under the spotlight again now in 2024.

Election analysts agree that seven states in particular are likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election in November. These consist of the five aforementioned states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, in addition to Nevada and North Carolina. The over 90 combined electoral votes up for grabs in these battleground states are anticipated to be pivotal to dictating the winner of the presidential election. As a result, the polling numbers there have been garnering much of the focus and attention. Since the presidential election is decided by the Electoral College system, as opposed to a national popular vote, a lot of prognosticators and commentators tend to gravitate towards polls in the vital swing states that can be realistically won by either of the two major party candidates – although experts point out that national polls are beneficial too as they normally pick up overall shifts in voter sentiments and trends quicker than state-level polling.

In order to better understand whether the slight Harris surge is one born out of mere initial enthusiasm regarding her entry into the 2024 presidential race or a noticeable shift that has emerged, time is needed to see what transpires moving forward over the coming days and weeks – especially following the announcement of Walz as her running mate and the formalizing of the Harris-Walz ticket at the impending Democratic National Convention in less than two weeks. For now, what appears evident though is that many Democrats are more enthusiastic and satisfied about Harris than they were about Biden, as outlined in a recent Times/Siena survey which found that nearly 80% of voters who lean Democratic said that they would like to see Harris be the nominee, compared to only 48% who said the same regarding Biden several weeks ago. This is also reflected in a double-digit uptick across multiple core Democratic voter groups of poll respondents who have expressed that they are definitely participating in the November election. Thus, with the shake-up of the Democratic ticket, what does seem possible at this point based on the latest polling is that some voters who had conveyed apathy when faced with the choice between Biden and Trump may be keener regarding one involving Harris and Trump.

Graham Calls for U.S. Military Force Against Iran on Behalf of Israel Despite the Latter’s Bellicose Behavior

Graham Calls for U.S. Military Force Against Iran on Behalf of Israel Despite the Latter’s Bellicose Behavior

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has proposed a bill which urges the United States to use military force against Iran on behalf of Israel. This is problematic for a number of reasons, as Graham is not only calling for American troops to be unnecessarily put in harm’s way for the defense of a foreign country, but he is also doing so despite Israel’s recent bellicose assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah officials. These actions have justifiably been denounced for their blatant intention of stoking hostilities and plunging the region into all-out war. In fact, a report shed light on the White House’s contention that the targeted assassinations were provocative moves, with Biden administration officials being livid about Israel’s decision to kill Ismail Haniyeh and failure to inform them of the launching of operations to assassinate Hezbollah commanders as well. Now, with his proposed legislation, Graham is putting forth the idea of needlessly and harmfully dragging the United States into war in the Middle East, while also disregarding Israel’s role in escalating the ongoing situation.

Public sentiment gathered through newly released polling finds that the majority of Americans oppose the idea of sending U.S. troops to defend Israel, particularly in light of Israel’s inflammatory actions. According to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 55% of Americans oppose the use of U.S. troops if Israel came under attack from one of its neighboring countries while only 41% say that they want troops to be sent to support Israel. Additionally, a similar number – of 56% – oppose the potential move if Israel was to be attacked by Iran specifically. The 14/15-point percentage gap is noteworthy, as it represents the highest proportion of Americans saying that they oppose sending troops to aid Israel since the pollster began surveying citizens about this question back in 2010. The dip in support transcends political leanings as well, with clear declines among both Democrats and Republicans, in addition to those who identify as Independents. The findings lend credence to the belief that Israel’s destructive War on Gaza has soured the American public on its military and financial support of Israel. It also highlights how most oppose the possibility of directly involving U.S. troops in a conflict on behalf of Israel.

The recent insight into the state of public perception regarding U.S. support for Israel is in line with the growing criticism that has emerged during the past ten months since the onset of the Gaza War. We have seen this manifest itself in widespread anti-war movements on college campuses across the United States, with a rising number of people expressing discontent with the nature of the U.S.-Israel relationship and raising legitimate concerns about American complicity in Israel’s war crimes and human rights abuses. As such, one of the major purposes behind these solidarity movements has been their intention to seek divestment from companies and entities that support Israel’s war efforts, either financially or militarily. Thus, a significant segment of the American population has made it clear that they do not back the concept of unquestioned U.S. financial and military support towards Israel.

Senator Graham is expected to bring his proposed bill regarding the authorization of U.S. military force against Iran on behalf of Israel up for a vote when Congress returns from its August recess next month in September. One can only hope that enough principled Congressmembers ultimately oppose the prospect of directly involving U.S. troops in yet another conflict in the Middle East, especially when there is increased weariness regarding American support for Israel and ample evidence of Israel’s human rights violations and belligerent behavior seeking to drag the United States into war.

Thousands of Anti-Racism Protesters Take to the Streets Across the United Kingdom to Counter Far-Right Rioters

Thousands of Anti-Racism Protesters Take to the Streets Across the United Kingdom to Counter Far-Right Rioters

Over the past several days in the United Kingdom, thousands of counter-protesters have gathered in cities across the country as a display of solidarity against violent far-right rioters. More than a dozen cities and towns had been plagued by bigoted violence during the preceding week as a result of a disinformation campaign that was hell-bent on creating havoc following a deadly knife attack on a children’s dance class which was falsely blamed on an asylum seeker or immigrant – a social media-fueled rumor that was later debunked. The disinformation was intent on stoking anti-immigrant and Islamophobic sentiment, and prompted rioters to violently clash with police as they targeted mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers. Lists also began circulating on social media and messaging apps which showed more than 30 locations that might be targeted by the bigoted anti-immigration protests, with many of these being charities and companies that support asylum seekers and refugees. Many of the riots had been instigated by far-right Zionist groups and leaders that have received financial backing from foreign sources tied to the Israeli government, such as Tommy Robinson, the co-founder of the English Defence League (EDL) – a far-right Islamophobic organization. The EDL has ties to Zionist terrorist organizations, who have driven much of the violent Islamophobic thuggery in the United Kingdom in recent years.

In response to the wave of violent far-right rallies and riots, counter-protesters took to the streets to form human shields to protect asylum centers and demonstrate against the deplorable hatred. Some of the participants held signs saying things like “refugees welcome” and “smash fascism and racism,” among others such as “unite against hate.” Despite concerns regarding potential clashes between rioters and counter-protesters which saw nearly 6,000 officers brought in to tackle any possible violence and unrest, the gatherings were for the most part non-confrontational, and in the end, counter-protesters outnumbered those who were supporting the far-right led rallies. Furthermore, U.K. counterterrorism officials confirmed that they were in the midst of investigating some of the anti-immigrant violence which erupted after last week’s knife attack. A couple of the incidents of interest involve an attempt to set fire to a mosque near the scene of where the deadly knife attack took place, in addition to an attempt to set fire to a hotel housing more than 200 asylum seekers this past weekend. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer denounced the wave of far-right riots as “organized, violent thuggery” and warned that those taking part in the violence would “face the full force of the law.”

What was clear to police, lawmakers, and experts involved in seeking to understand the course of events which transpired is that regrettably, bigoted disinformation and far-right agitators fueled the violence. On social media platforms, users shared false information about the deadly knife attack perpetrator which spread like wildfire among extremist groups and their supporters. This included lies about the attacker’s name and immigration status, with people falsely claiming that he was an asylum seeker or that he had come to the United Kingdom illegally. All of this fanned the flames of narratives that oppose immigration. As disinformation about the attacker continued to spread, authorities issued statements saying that he was born in Cardiff, Wales; but nevertheless, false claims persisted and led to the outbreak of violence and rioting.

As a part of their efforts to negate the rioters, counter-protesters organized large-scale demonstrations aimed at outnumbering them – a tactic that worked in various cities and towns. Groups such as Stand Up to Racism called on citizens to mobilize in order to defend refugee charities, asylum support centers, places of worship, and immigration law offices. Tens of thousands of people attended in solidarity in cities across the United Kingdom including London, Liverpool, Oxford, Newcastle, Brighton, and Southampton. Police spokespeople were quick to praise and thank many of the local communities for their role in standing united against the reprehensible violence. The counter-protests seemed to help in quelling the riots, as the overall situation has calmed in recent days.