The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 300, September 5, 2025

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s edition, we provide analysis regarding U.S. Envoy to Lebanon Tom Barrack’s push to disarm Hezbollah and the chances of his success, while also examining the largest authority on genocide’s declaration that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Editor: Bassam Tarbush

U.S. Envoy to Lebanon Tom Barrack’s Push to Disarm Hezbollah and the Chances of His Success

Continued Israeli ceasefire violations and occupation of Lebanese territory are viewed as some of the major obstacles to the Hezbollah disarmament plan. (Photo from AFP)

As U.S. Envoy to Lebanon Tom Barrack and other American officials push for the implementation of the Hezbollah disarmament plan, there are aspects that present significant challenges to the prospect of success. The plan, which was approved by the Lebanese government last month, aims to bring all weapons under state control by the end of the year in exchange for Israel’s withdrawal from occupied areas in southern Lebanon and an end to its hostilities. It also includes the promise of international economic support for Lebanon – a nation in the midst of a deep economic and financial crisis – as an incentive for compliance. Yet one of the main obstacles remains how to proceed with the disarmament of Hezbollah when Israel continues to violate the November 2024 ceasefire agreement with ongoing military operations and attacks – which Hezbollah has insisted must be put to an end first and cited as justification for retaining its weapons. Israel’s failure to abide by the ceasefire agreement and its unlawful occupation of territory in southern Lebanon have therefore been deemed harmful to the prospect of successfully carrying out the plan.

Despite being signed by Lebanon and Israel, with several mediating countries such as the United States pledging to oversee its proper enforcement, the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement has seen Israel commit at least 8,000 violations – according to United Nations peacekeepers. This has included ground operations, drone surveillance, and airstrikes, all serving as not only violations of the ceasefire agreement but of Lebanese sovereignty as well. UN peacekeepers have also noted that these violations have come from the Israeli side, but not from Lebanon. Understandably, this has led many to argue that U.S. officials should ensure that these impediments to peace be halted first – or at the very least at the same time – with the efforts to push for the disarmament of Hezbollah. U.S. officials like Barrack have seemingly acknowledged the need for Israel to comply with the stipulations laid out in the plan for it to have any chance of success, however it appears as though the onus is being placed on the Lebanese government to try to begin the complex and fragile process of disarming Hezbollah first while bellicose Israeli violations still persist. It is clear to most experts that Hezbollah will likely resist the idea of handing over its arms unless Israel stops launching attacks and withdraws from illegally occupied Lebanese territories.

In addition to the continued Israeli attacks, its ongoing occupation of numerous areas in southern Lebanon is a notable hindrance to the prospect of successful implementation of the Hezbollah disarmament plan. This is in direct defiance to the terms of the ceasefire and has been condemned by Lebanese and UN officials. Israeli forces have refused to withdraw from southern Lebanon, even though doing so would maximize the chances for the disarmament plan to succeed. Furthermore, the continued presence of Israeli forces is a violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and serves as a course of action which indefinitely risks sparking renewed conflict. For these reasons, Lebanese government officials have recently implored the U.S. to pressure Israel to end its encroachments. Doing so would help to stabilize domestic conditions and allow the Lebanese government to deal with Hezbollah as should be the case: as a matter of internal affairs and integration into the state apparatus.

Fair-minded analysts view the halting of Israeli attacks and unlawful occupation as conditions that must be put in place either before or in conjunction with efforts to initiate the disarmament of Hezbollah. As such, there is skepticism regarding the chances of successful implementation of the Hezbollah disarmament plan unless this transpires. It is crucial that the United States apply the same amount of pressure on Israel as it is on the Lebanese government. If Barrack and other U.S. officials want to truly see the plan succeed, they should use the United States’ leverage over Israel to compel its adherence to the needed circumstances on the ground in southern Lebanon that would allow this to materialize.

The Largest Authority on Genocide Declares That Israel is Committing Genocide in Gaza

The world’s top genocide scholars have issued a formal declaration that Israel is committing both genocide and crimes against humanity in Gaza. (Photo from Getty Images)

Earlier this week, the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) passed a resolution which formally declared that Israel’s policies and actions in Gaza meet the legal definition of genocide set forth in international law. IAGS, the leading global authority on the matter, stated that 86% of its voting members supported the resolution outlining the Israeli government’s systematic and widespread crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide – consisting of forced displacement, starvation, and indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure. Observers have noted the significance of the declaration given that it affirms what many have already been saying about Israel’s actions in Gaza, while also providing a definitive proclamation from the foremost experts in the field of genocide studies. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Doctors Without Borders, and even leading Israeli rights groups such as B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights have all previously concluded that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Israel also faces an ongoing genocide case at the world’s highest court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which was brought forth by South Africa but has since seen many additional countries express support for or join the case including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ireland, Spain, and Turkey – among others.

In reaching its overwhelming consensus on the genocide declaration, IAGS cited Israel’s deliberate and unprecedented number of attacks against medical workers and journalists, the targeting of civilians and destruction of civilian infrastructure, the repeated forcible displacement of Gaza’s population, and the killing or injuring of tens of thousands of children. The group also highlighted the growing acknowledgement of a man-made famine in Gaza, as humanitarian agencies and expert organizations have asserted that the catastrophic conditions and starvation are directly caused by the actions of the Israeli military. A recent August 2025 report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) officially declared that famine was taking place in Gaza, and that the crisis was undoubtedly a man-made one. Rights groups have documented the undeniable evidence of systematic starvation through Israel’s destruction of food, water, and health systems in Gaza, while at the same time obstructing humanitarian aid. Thus, this systematic behavior and the use of starvation as a weapon of war are further proof of genocidal intent.

On top of the actions of Israeli forces, the IAGS resolution also references statements by high-level Israeli government officials as evidence which supports its declaration. These include Israeli government leaders, war cabinet ministers, and senior army officers who have made direct statements outlining an “intent to destroy” and characterizing Palestinians in Gaza as a whole as “enemies” and “human animals.” The IAGS experts and scholars drew attention to Israeli officials’ support for the widely condemned Trump Gaza takeover plan as well, with members of the Israeli government using it as a means to advocate for the expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza – something that represents a blatant call for the genocidal crime of ethnic cleansing. Israeli ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have repeatedly pushed for this, and to many analysts, these types of statements demonstrate the underlying motivations behind the relentless bombardment of Gaza.

The formal declaration that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza by the world’s principal authority on the study of it has not only validated what other entities have been saying since the early stages of the Gaza War, it also marks a landmark assessment that adds to the universal denunciation of Israel’s actions. As IAGS President Melanie O’Brien pointed out, the resolution is a definitive statement from experts in the field of genocide studies that what is taking place on the ground in Gaza is in fact a genocide by all internationally established definitions and characteristics of the crime. With this latest and most significant declaration, it is clear that this sentiment has now become widespread among prominent scholars and issue experts.