History of the Kurds:
There are between 25-35 million Kurds inhabiting swaths of land in Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Syria, and Turkey. The Kurds are the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, but have never established a permanent state, which has led to repeated conflict with the federal governments of the nations in which they reside. Following World War I, the Treaty of Sevres made provisions for a Kurdish nation, but these promises were reneged upon when the Treaty of Lausanne set the borders of the modern Turkish state without a separate Kurdish homeland. In the nations where there are large Kurdish populations, the Kurds are left with minority status. This has resulted in sporadic sparring between ethnic Kurds and governments in the Levant, most notably Iraq and Turkey, where the Kurdish people have been fighting for political and territorial legitimacy for generations.
Kurdish nationalists first came to prominence in Iraq in 1958, following the overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy. The new Iraqi constitution recognized the Kurds’ “national rights” and gave the Kurds’ political branch, the KDP, legitimacy. However, this was short-lived as the KDP was dissolved by the Iraqi government in 1961 following a Kurdish rebellion. The 1960’s were characterized by fighting between Kurdish nationalists and the government of Iraq, in which the Kurds aimed to establish an autonomous region in northern Iraq. The war ended in stalemate, and the peace negotiations that followed resulted in an agreement for Kurdish autonomy to be written into the Iraqi constitution. However, in 1974, the leader of the KDP, Mustafa Barzani, rejected the autonomy agreement drafted by the Iraqi government as it left the contested Kirkuk oilfields under government control. Fighting resumed and continued through the 1980’s, with the Kurds allying themselves with Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. In 1991, Kurdish leaders met with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to negotiate autonomy, but attacks by Kurdish forces on government-held towns during the talks brought the negotiations to a standstill. When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, Kurdish leaders thought it best to work with the American-backed government to secure the ouster of Saddam Hussein. As a result of his downfall, Kurdish autonomy in Iraq was officially ratified in 2006, and relations between the two remained cordial until the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014. Iraqi government forces withdrew from large swaths of Kurdish territory, leaving the Kurds to defend roughly 1000 kilometers of territory from the jihadist group. Since the destruction of the ISIS caliphate, relations have warmed again between Baghdad and the Kurds, and there are currently negotiations underway over the joint control of territory in northern Iraq.
Similar to their counterparts in Iraq, Turkey’s Kurds have had tensions with the central government for generations. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was initially established in 1974 as a political and military enterprise focused on the creation of a Kurdish state within Turkey. Today, its goals closer resemble achieving Kurdish autonomy in southeastern Turkey. In its foundling years, the PKK tried to garner support from Turkey’s Kurdish population by attacking Turkish enterprises and engaging in propaganda campaigns. The PKK employed guerilla tactics against Turkish government apparatuses, including sabotage, riots, and ambushes of government forces. The group also targeted foreign tourists for kidnapping, conducted suicide bombings, and attacked Turkish diplomatic missions abroad. In 1999, Turkey’s military cracked down on the PKK and captured its leader, Abdullah Ocalan. Ocalan had established a base of operations in Syria, and was conducting guerilla operations from the other side of the border with the support of then-Syrian leader Hafez Al-Assad. As a result of the crackdown, the remaining Kurdish combatants fled into northern Iraq, renounced violence, and tried to reform the group as a political party. However, these efforts mostly failed, and in 2004 the group reneged on a five-year ceasefire and resumed violent guerilla tactics against the Turkish state. Specifically, there was a sharp increase in violence in 2007, when PKK members killed 30 Turkish soldiers and citizens. Most of the fighting occurred in the heavily Kurdish cities of Cizre, Sur, and Nusaybin in southern Turkey. In total, the conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state is estimated to have killed between 30,000 – 40,000 people. More recently, the PKK has fought alongside other Kurdish nationalists in Syria with the American-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State. The Kurds capitalized on the chaos of Syria’s civil war to claim territory in the north of the country, and have claimed the land as a quasi-autonomous region for the past few years. The Kurds were able to establish a peaceful enclave in northern Syria, which they called “Rojava.” Due to their vested interest in defending the region, Kurdish forces have led the fight against the Islamic State on the ground in Syria.
Kurdish Role in Fighting ISIS:
The first modern instance of a military relationship between the Kurds and the West occurred when Iraqi-Kurdish Peshmerga fought the Saddam Hussein government in Iraq alongside American forces during the 2003 invasion. More recently, the Kurds in Syria won support from the West due to their willingness to be the principle force on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State. Western nations applauded the Kurds’ moderate political stance, and supported them financially and militarily. The Kurdish forces who battled ISIS were comprised of nationalist Kurds from the PKK, and another group, the PYD, which is comprised of nationalist Syrian Kurds. They re-established the YPG as a military wing, dubbed the “people’s protection units.” These groups grew into what is now known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). However, these groups had links to radical elements within the PKK, and as the SDF reclaimed territory in northern Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan became wary of the group due to the PKK’s previous transgressions against the Turkish state. Erdogan has been a vocal critic of the Kurdish fighters, and has repeatedly called for American and coalition forces in northern Syria to depart, so Turkey could establish a “safe zone” along their border by eradicating Kurdish forces. Erdogan’s plan is to repatriate Syrian refugees currently housed in Turkey in this safe zone, which would penetrate about 32 kilometers into Syria.
During their campaign to liberate territory from the ISIS caliphate, Kurdish soldiers also captured a great number of Islamic State fighters. With assistance from the American-backed coalition forces, the Kurds established and guarded detainment camps in their territory where many foreign-born terrorists were held. European countries have been reluctant to repatriate nationals who had joined the terror organization, and the detainment camps are said to house many particular dangerous members of the Islamic State. There are fears among Western states that with Turkey’s intrusion into Syria, the Kurds will be forced to leave these prisons unguarded, which would allow extremely dangerous people to escape.
While Kurdish forces have liberated hundreds of towns from ISIS control, they are also accused of committing egregious crimes. An Amnesty International fact-finding mission discovered that Kurdish fighters had engaged in the systematic razing of civilian areas. In some instances, following the capture of a town from the Islamic State, it is alleged that the liberating Kurds had accused the civilians living there of being ISIS spies, and burned dozens of homes to the ground. In one such case, 93% of the homes in the village of Husseiniya were razed. Kurdish fighters also stand accused of threatening to call in American airstrikes on civilian villages if the inhabitants failed to leave. As the leading military faction in the SDF coalition, the YPG seemingly confirmed Turkey’s view of the group as dangerous and bordering on radical. Additionally, former PKK members who have defected have alleged that Iran’s intelligence service manages and supports the Kurdish group, which would make them a proxy of the Iranian government. There are also murky connections between the Kurds, ISIS, and the Assad regime. Kurdish defectors have spoken of secret agreements between the Kurds and the Islamic State involving the transfer of captured villages. The PYD also collaborated with the Assad government to suppress anti-regime protests in its territory before civil war broke out.
U.S. Troop Withdrawal and Ceasefire in Syria:
Reports surfaced on October 7th that the White House, namely President Trump and his administration, had called for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. The remaining American forces in the area provided support to the SDF in maintaining the makeshift jails that held ISIS captives, and as a de-facto peacekeeper between Turkey, the Kurds, and Syrian government forces. The decision to withdraw troops from Syria was met with heavy criticisms from U.S. military officials as well as many European countries. The withdrawal announcement was seen largely as a green light for Turkey to enact its proposed plan of launching an incursion into Syria that would remove Kurdish forces from a roughly 20-mile deep stretch of land along the whole Syrian-Turkish border.
On October 9th, Turkey launched its operation into northeastern Syria that included heavy clashes with the SDF. Fighting occurred in many border cities that were previously under ISIS control but were won back by the SDF. One of these cities, Manbij, was overrun by Turkish forces which forced the Kurds to turn to the Syrian government for support. Kurdish groups, with the help of fighters sent from Damascus, continued to push back against Turkish forces to avoid the loss of more land and to take back Manbij. The Kurdish decision to turn to Damascus for help effectively ended the autonomy that the Kurds in northern Syria had enjoyed to this point. President Bashar Al-Assad had previously made statements disavowing Kurdish autonomy, but due to the chaos of the Syrian Civil War, had been unable to do anything about it.
Following extensive backlash to his decision to withdraw troops from Syria, President Trump proceeded to threaten Turkey with sanctions which would “crush their economy” if its continued with its offensive in Syria. European leaders and other NATO allies echoed the call for sanctions to be placed upon Turkey for its attacks against the Kurds — who were considered a NATO partner in the fight against ISIS. Turkey has admonished the threat of sanctions and President Erdoğan expressed that he would not agree to a ceasefire under the threat of economic pressure from the West. The U.S. Treasury Department raised the tariff on steel imports by 50% and issued sanctions on Turkey’s energy and defense ministries. The Turkish Lira, which had fallen in anticipation of tougher U.S. sanctions, recovered quickly after the Treasury Department’s announcement.
Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Turkey on October 17th to meet with President Erdoğan to discuss a peace deal in Syria. The U.S. and Turkey agreed to a five-day ceasefire on the conditions that the remaining 1,000 U.S. troops would leave Syria and the Kurds would withdraw from the agreed-upon “safe zone.” If the Kurdish fighters had not withdrawn from the “safe zone” at the end of the 120-hour agreement, Erdoğan promised that Turkey would continue where they had left off and “crush the heads of the terrorists.” However, the American and Turkish governments disagree on who exactly the terrorists are. Turkey considers the YPG to be an offshoot of the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both nations and NATO. However, the United States does not consider the YPG to be a terrorist organization, which is why the Americans supported them with military and financial aid.
The fragile ceasefire held successfully without any incidents despite being tumultuous at times. The remaining 1,000 U.S. troops were able to withdraw from Syria into Iraq, assailed with trash along the way by Syrians and Kurds unhappy with the White House’s decision to withdraw. The ceasefire is set to end on October 22nd and in the final hours of the American-brokered truce, Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to discuss the future of the region. Turkey still desires a 20-mile deep buffer zone between itself and the Kurds, so its border regions are out of mortar fire range. The Kremlin wants to further establish the control of the Assad regime in Syria and expressed their understanding of the Turkish need to protect their homeland security. The partnership developing between Turkey – a NATO ally, Russia, and Syria is precisely what top military and civilian leaders warned about in the hours after President Trump’s decision to withdraw American forces from the region.
Future Outlook:
Although the situation in Syria remains fluid, Presidents Trump, Erdoğan, and Putin all appear to have gotten what they desired. For President Trump, a campaign promise to bring American troops out of combat zones is being fulfilled. With the Kurdish withdrawal in northern Syria, Erdoğan is finally able to be comfortable with the safety of towns on his southern border, and Putin was able to consolidate the authority of Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad, a longtime Russian ally. The losers in this situation appear to be the Kurds, who have given up their autonomy in exchange for protection by the Syrian government. However, the SDF has vowed to continue fighting, and Turkey and Syria will be wary of the threat posed by the group. Additionally, as chaos once again engulfs Syria, it would be unsurprising to see ISIS take advantage and attempt to mount a comeback in the region.
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