Editor: Bassam Tarbush
By Daniel Imbornoni
On October 8th, 2024, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) – in conjunction with the Brookings Institution – hosted a virtual public event focused on the future of the Middle East. The event was moderated by Vivian Salama of the Wall Street Journal, and was the final in a series focused on the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. The full series aimed to address the United States’ role in the world, how international affairs affects voters, foreign policy issues at stake in November, and some of the issues concerning policymakers and voters in the run-up to the election.
CFR’s Steven Cook spoke regarding the recent device explosions in Lebanon and where things stand in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the Nasrallah assassination led to the inevitable more direct confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. She explained that the decision to assassinate Nasrallah was done knowing that it would lead to further escalations and a retaliation from Iran – as has happened – and that now, the world waits for Israel’s response in the tit-for-tat between the two. Maloney stated that if Israel were to go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, it would be a major escalation that could potentially result in more direct U.S. involvement in the hostilities.
Linda Robinson of CFR provided statistics and figures relating to the current situation in Gaza. She referenced those killed in the October 7th Hamas attacks, as well as the alarming death toll of Palestinians in Gaza, including a possible 10,000 or more that are unaccounted for and presumed dead. Robinson emphasized the absolutely dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and noted that according to U.N. compiled figures, over 900 people have also been killed in the occupied West Bank as a result of Israeli forces and illegal settlers – with settler attacks at an all-time high. She went on to discuss the tense state of U.S.-Israeli relations, and the longstanding failure to initiate a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Lastly, Shibley Telhami of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution examined the consequences of the Nasrallah assassination, and the strategies of the belligerents, identifying what is likely to follow next. He described the Nasrallah assassination as similar to other events that have occurred before, referring to the assassinations of top leaders of other regional paramilitary organizations. Telhami highlighted Netanyahu’s strategy as one in which he diverts attention from one crisis to another in an effort to distract from growing criticism regarding his actions. He also noted that while Hezbollah has been weakened, they are still able to operate, as has been the case with Hamas in Gaza as well. For Telhami, Israel appears intent on a strategy of continuous escalation and a perpetuation of hostilities.
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