The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 177, February 3, 2023

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s headlines: we examine what is contributing to the escalating violence in the West Bank, explore the contributing factors to unrest in Tunisia and the possibility of another uprising, investigate the United Kingdom’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and see how the recent attack at a Pakistani Mosque has caused some to doubt security practices.

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Escalating Violence in the West Bank

Tensions Continue to Escalate in the Israeli-Occupied West Bank as Multiple Palestinians and Israelis are Killed Over the Weekend

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the Middle East has been primarily centered on rising tensions in the occupied West Bank after the killing of 10 Palestinians in a raid in the Jenin Refugee Camp this past week. This raid is just the most recent in a string of violence that has already killed at least 35 Palestinians, including 8 children, in just January 2023 alone. 7 Israelis were also killed in a shooting on Friday. The violence continued into the weekend, with at least 144 attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians being reported. These attacks are part of a more significant trend of growing fanaticism.

There has been a persistent escalation of events that contribute to the violence against the Palestinian people. Because of increased settler and Israeli military violence, 2022 became the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since 2005. The attacks sparked a series of incidents that have brought the situation to a major escalation. The violence has not been isolated in Jenin, but has spread throughout all of the West Bank. Last week’s onslaught left its mark. The Gaza Strip has experienced five significant Israeli assaults in the past 15 years, and the deaths of thousands of Palestinians. Representatives of the Gaza-based Hamas stated that they were “prepared for anything” and hinted at the possibility of yet another war. In an illegal Jewish colony in occupied East Jerusalem, constructed on land confiscated from the Palestinian communities of Beit Hanina, Hizma, and al-Ram, a Palestinian man, 21-year-old Khairy Alqam, carried out a shooting attack on Friday that resulted in the deaths of seven Israelis. At least 35 Palestinians, including 8 children, have been slain by the Israeli army and settlements since 2023 began. Twenty of them came from or were located nearby Jenin. The Israeli army’s open-fire policies, which it has utilized for more than a year, and intentions by Israel’s new far-right government to arm more Israelis in retaliation to the shootings in Jerusalem have pushed the situation to the brink. These policies put Palestinians at great risk of being killed.

Blinken met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday to discuss the West Bank situation, as well as collaboration to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Since the most recent round of the U.S.-sponsored negotiations hit a dead end in 2014, hopes of securing a two-state solution with a Palestinian state have begun to wane. These brutal acts of violence committed by Israeli settlers and the army are entirely unjust and violate human rights. The United States has consistently sided with Israel and excluded Palestine. The Biden administration had pledged to reopen a Palestinian consulate that had been closed by former President Donald Trump, but it has not yet said when or where it will do so. In a speech given on Tuesday, Blinken called on both sides to take action and reduce hostility and reaffirmed America’s commitment towards the two-state solution. This solution has been made impossible by continuing encroachment on and theft of Palestinian land by Israeli settlers. It is impossible to create borders for 2 states when one of these states is actively stealing land from the other. Polling has indicated that only 1/3 of Israelis and Palestinians believe in the plan to partition Palestine into a separate Palestinian and Israeli state.

Unrest in Tunisia

Another Uprising May Happen Soon in Tunisia

Tunisia has been facing dissatisfaction from its people for some time now. There is a general consensus amongst the international community that the economy in Tunisia is fractured and in danger of collapsing. 12 years after the Arab Spring, an overwhelming majority of Tunisians are dissatisfied with the country’s current economic status and adherence to counterproductive austerity measures dictated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These policy failures have resulted in an overwhelming amount of discontent and unfulfilled expectations, which pose a significant challenge to Tunisia’s long-term prospects for democratic progress. Since the Arab Spring took place a little over a decade ago, Tunisia has had to focus on repairing its collapsed economy, while still trying to consolidate its democracy. The government leaders who were in power after the revolution failed to move the country in the right direction, and they weren’t able to sufficiently address the people’s economic grievances. The economic stagnation has led to the Tunisian people believing that no one inside the political establishment can execute a responsible policy that would alleviate their difficulties. Populism began as a distrust of the government, which gave power to President Saied as a potential savior during the COVID-19 pandemic. Saied promised strong rule and a way to end corruption in Tunisia. This ultimately caused the Tunisian economy to collapse; poverty, unemployment, and inflation rapidly increased from there. Debt provided an opportunity for IMF loans to increase rapidly.

President Saied’s socioeconomic failings have also consisted of repressive and violent measures against any forms of opposition and anti-government protests He has implemented travel bans and jailed activists. Any economic aid outside of IMF loans has been non-existent. In order to keep receiving these loans, Saied must remain in the good graces of the IMF and the rules they must adhere to. A new $1.9 billion loan is hoped to soon be implemented to eliminate food and fuel subsidies, public health, education, and social protection spending. Protests continue in Tunisia and are reminiscent of what we have seen during the Arab Spring, as Tunisians are resilient toward the lack of support from President Saied and the ones sitting in the government establishment.

Similar circumstances have been seen in Tunisia’s past. When the IMF insisted that bread subsidies be eliminated in order to obtain aid, there were early indications of a political crisis in the 1980s. This prompted Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to lead a coup d’état. This coup is similar to the 2008 rebellion against Ben Ali’s government, which became one of the most well-known revolts in history. He also complied with the structural adjustment program of the IMF. President Saied seems to be ignoring the obvious, the fact that the IMF austerity policies will lead to an end to his authoritative undemocratic reign. It appears Tunisians may once more rise up to try to defend their democracy and ensure that they are still able to put food on their tables. They are beginning to unite around the Saied regime’s failure to address the country’s economic issues and its cooperation with the IMF’s risky demands. It is very possible that there will soon be another revolt by the people of Tunisia to ensure their democratic and economic security.

UK Arms Sales Questioned

UK Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia are Contributing to Yemen Abuses

The UK government is in place to receive legal action regarding the arms deal they engaged Saudi Arabia in amidst the ongoing war in Yemen. This ordeal received attention from the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), which began efforts to take the UK government to the High Court to assert the implication that UK arms have involvement in breaching international humanitarian law and one of the world’s deplorable humanitarian crises. Emily Apple, from the CAAT, conveyed a message that “This government cares more about profit than war crimes and the death of civilians.” Yemen has endured a long, sloppy campaign that has resulted in the deaths of many civilians. In the last calendar year, Yemen has experienced Saudi-led coalition airstrikes resulting in 87 recorded civilian deaths, 136 injuries, 19 attacks on hospitals, clinics, and ambulances, and 293 attacks that forced people to flee their homes. Nearly 40% of attacks lead to Yemeni people being displaced. These attacks from the Saudi military would not be possible if it was not for the consistent supply of arms from the UK government. From the beginning of Saudi intervention in Yemen, it is reported that the UK has licensed at least 7.9 billion Euros in arms. CAAT, however, has estimated that the value truly lies around 23 billion Euros. Since the beginning of this war, there have been thousands of civilian casualties and more than 4 million people have been displaced from their homes, creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. More than 17 million Yemeni people are suffering from hunger, putting the Yemeni people in deep distress and harm.

The profit over war crimes has been a rising concern for some time now, and it is our hope to see an end to these atrocities. The conflict started when Yemen went into civil war in 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital of Sanaa, leading the government to flee to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s economic endeavor to siege the Houthi-controlled regions has led to over 300,000 deaths over 8 years, according to the UN. Bombardments have killed 9,000 innocent civilians during targeted assaults on medical facilities, weddings, and funeral services. The Middle East Eye transmitted reports that the UK government declined to reveal intelligence regarding weapon transactions to Saudi Arabia during the Yemen struggle. Mwatana for Human Liberties, an independent Yemeni affiliate part of CAAT, was confident of court actions conveying redress to this occurrence. Because of these air raids, there is ample discernment of the legitimacy of UK arms sales being ceased. There are sizable losses from this humanitarian disaster. It is a calamity that has to be answered to finish the pain of millions of harmless people.

In earlier times, CAAT has brought this issue up in 2019, which led to the UK having to suspend arms sales, however, the result ended in the breach of humanitarian law being deemed an “isolated incident” and arms sales were resumed in 2021 from the UK government. CAAT has been very invested in getting to the bottom of this humanitarian crisis, arguing that these are more than just isolated incidents, as it stands in direct correlation to the suffering of millions of Yemeni people as they are being devastated by British weapons at the hands of the Saudi-led coalition. This judicial review is projected to last until February 2nd.

Attack at Pakistani Mosque

Pakistani Mosque Attack Killing More Than 100 People and Calling into Question Security Practices

Over the weekend a mosque in a police compound in Pakistan was bombed. The local hospital reported that at least 100 people were killed, and 157 others were wounded from the blast. While worshippers were just beginning to pray, police official Siddique Khan, said that the perpetrator was a suicide bomber. Witnesses describe a truly terrifying scene. A policeman that survived these attacks saw the black smoke rising and commented, “The screams of the people are still echoing in my mind” and added that “people were screaming for help.” The mosque was inside a highly fortified police compound that was also the headquarters of the provincial police force and counterterrorism department. Some of the mosque crumbled and fell on top of worshippers leaving people submerged in the rubble. The building was almost at capacity with 300 people worshipping inside when the bomb exploded. The attack has caused many in Pakistan to question the ability of the Pakistani military and police to maintain security.

There has been an increase in attacks in Peshawar, the capital of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province that borders Afghanistan. The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TPP), a Pakistani wing of the Afghani Taliban, initially claimed responsibility for the attack, but has since begun to downplay their role, saying that places of worship should not be attacked.  ISIS has also been active in Pakistan and claimed responsibility for an attack that happened in Peshawar last March that killed 64 people. This surge in violence in recent times has been devastating to Pakistani civilians who have lost family, friends, and law enforcement officials. With the persistent attacks on Pakistan, they must devise a strategy to combat the threat to their internal security. These recent attacks will also surely influence the upcoming election. Pakistan has been active in multiple anti-terrorism operations in the past 20+ years. They had negotiated a fragile ceasefire with the group. Pakistan’s targeting of TTP leaders led the terrorist organization to officially end its ceasefire with Pakistan in November, though there had been multiple attacks before that. Just in 2022, Pakistan’s monitoring agencies reported 150 attacks that stemmed from the TTP that killed dozens of Pakistanis. The resurgence of the Afghani Taliban has likely contributed to this uptick in activity, and is a danger to the people of Pakistan and their security.

Pakistan is starting to destabilize. The country has faced many problems recently, including terrible environmental disasters that are devastating the nation. Climate change has contributed to 1/3 of the country being under water from flooding in 2002 from increased precipitation and melting of the ice glaciers. This has been one of the most significant humanitarian disasters that the world has seen. Families have been displaced, villages decimated, civilians have been killed at the hands of infectious diseases, and a young democracy is in need of figuring out a solution while dealing with so many other problems as well. Funds to alleviate damages and overall help were just raised by the UN from $116 million to $800 million. Currently, there are requests for more help to deal with the atrocities. Another underlying problem is that these issues are contributing to a crippling Pakistani economy, not allowing them the opportunity to put resources into the things that can protect and help grow their democracy. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like the TTP will cease its attacks. They are also demanding the release of their members from the Pakistani government and a reversal of the Pakistani tribal areas merging with the Khyber province. The overall destabilizing effect puts the country’s fragile democracy at more risk. Worsening conditions often open the door for bad actors with false promises to enter the political arena. Once in power, these actors frequently strip citizens of their civil and human rights to maintain and consolidate control.