The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 194, June 9, 2023

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s headlines: we analyze the economic and political effects of Saudi Arabia’s decision to unilaterally cut its oil productions, investigate the recent incident on the Israeli-Egyptian border and the effect it will have on the relationship between the two countries, and examine the mass deportation of migrants in Libya.

Written by Jacob Van Veldhuizen and Toni JeBailey

---

Repercussions of Saudi Oil Cuts

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Cuts and Global Repercussions

Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut oil production output starting in July, with plans to extend it well into 2024. This reduction would equate to 1 million barrels a day being cut, with this decision being made apart from the initial OPEC+ announcement this past April to reduce 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) of production, resulting in an almost 3.6% decrease in the global supply. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman remarks this decision as one necessary to help stabilize the price of gas and the market overall, calling the state’s additional output cuts the “icing on the cake” of the initial OPEC+ pledge. While OPEC+ is responsible for over 40% of the global crude oil supply, Saudi Arabia is the only member state with large enough production capabilities to reduce and increase their oil production at their independent will with most other member state reductions (such as Russia, Nigeria, and Angola) being reflective of true production rates.

The effects of these output cuts on global gas are estimated to boost the prices in the upcoming weeks, with the revenue from this being primarily used by Saudi Arabia to balance their funds and allocate portions to new development and technology. The IMF estimates the Saudis need to sell at a rate of about $80 per barrel to finance these projects. Oil cuts aim to help inflate the price to remain within this range. In the days following the announcement, Brent Crude, the standard global benchmark company for oil production, rose to $77.20 a barrel on June 8th indicating some immediate success for the Saudi strategy. With these cuts remaining throughout the next year, only time will tell if this approach succeeds and shifts the Brent Crude to the desired price. A White House Official remarked that the United States’ primary concern is “not barrels, but prices” as millions of barrels have been released from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to accommodate for previous production cuts since last year and attempt to keep gas prices stagnant. By the end of this year, U.S. production is expected to rise 5.1% as a result of shifting global output.

The spat between the United States and Saudi Arabia regarding oil production serves as a greater reflection of current relations. As U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken embarks on a visit to Saudi Arabia on June 6th, a variety of political concerns and contentions are hoped to be remedied through meetings with top Saudi officials and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Besides the current oil situation, another topic of great concern to American interest is the formalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, as Blinken regards this as a “real national security interest.” This, combined with the current U.S.-Iran relations (hindering Saudi Arabia’s demands for U.S. backing regarding nuclear development in opposition to Iran) and the growing relationship between China and Saudi Arabia calls into question Blinken’s projected effectiveness with the current strains between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. With another primary area of contention being Saudi Arabia’s alleged human rights violations during both the bombings in Yemen and the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Blinken’s actions and discourse within Saudi Arabia may conflict with bi-partisan opposition to growing engagement with the Middle Eastern power. During a June 7th meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Blinken remarked the improvement of relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia was “strengthened by progress on human rights”, citing recent efforts by Saudi Arabia to evacuate U.S. citizens from Sudan as well as a bilateral commitment to mediating peace in Yemen.

As recent Saudi rapprochement efforts within the Middle East have garnered relationships absent of American influence, these connections have provided a sense of independence for the Kingdom to engage as a political power player. Most notably, Saudi Arabia’s recent joint operation and intervention in Sudan alongside Iran reflects a recent stride towards cooperation, especially since the agreement between the two states (facilitated by China) was signed in March. This, combined with the re-engagement efforts with both Turkey and Syria mirror a similar purpose of Saudi Arabia re-establishing its role within the region while simultaneously diminishing U.S. presence. As the market readjusts to Saudi Arabia’s output cuts, the true scope of this economic power move will demonstrate on a global scale. As Blinken has stated his commitment to “deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords,” with support for this rapprochement strategy and normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the extent of the U.S.’s ability to remain present within Saudi policy remains in question. Whether his visit plays a role in any U.S.-Saudi relations, gas production-related or not, will once again redefine the current affinity between the two global power players.

Israeli-Egyptian Border Incident 

Three Israelis and One Egyptian Killed in Border Crossing Incident, Will it Affect Their Relationship?

Three Israeli soldiers and an Egyptian policeman were killed in a rare incident on the Egyptian-Israeli border. Details of the incident remain disputed. Egyptian authorities are calling this incident an “accident” while Israeli authorities are describing it as a “serious attack.” The Egyptian Army is claiming the incident was the result of a hot pursuit of drug smugglers by the Egyptian policeman. The Israeli military is claiming the Egyptian policeman killed two Israeli soldiers while they were standing guard at the border. Another Israeli soldier and an Egyptian policeman were killed in the subsequent confrontation.

Despite this tense moment in their relationship, it appears that cooler heads are prevailing. Israeli armed forces spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht told reports in a briefing about the situation that, “Our assumption is that this was connected to the drug-smuggling attempt, but we can’t be sure yet,” He went on to say “It could be (the Islamic State, the terrorist group active in Egypt’s Sinai region), it could be a rogue border guard, it could be a smuggler, we’re still looking into it.” Hecht assured that “cooperation with Egypt is good, it’s ongoing. This is not a geopolitical incident.” Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday to discuss the incident and subsequent investigation. They both released a statement indicating cooperation between the two countries. Both countries stated after the meeting that they would launch a thorough collaborative investigation.

Statements from Lt. Col Hecht and the cooperation between Egyptian and Israeli governments investigating the incident indicate there is no real danger of this incident snowballing, at least in terms of diplomatic relations. Public perception is what needs to be watched right now. Despite Egypt and Israel signing a peace agreement in 1979, the people from each country still have a negative outlook on each other’s country. There is the potential for bad actors to exploit this incident to sow anti-Egyptian sentiment in Israel or vice-versa. Though it is likely feelings will fester, it is unlikely that these negative feelings will lead to any violence. Israel’s relationship with Egypt, albeit tense, has benefited both sides in certain ways. Security cooperation between the two countries has allowed for better counter-terrorism operations to take place, eliminating mutual enemies, and increasing economic aid offers another form of stability.

The Egyptian policeman was 22-year-old Mohammed Salah. Israel claims they found that he was carrying a rifle with 6 magazines, 2 combat knives, and a Quaran. Some Israeli politicians have said his carrying of the Quaran indicates he was an Islamist extremist. There is currently no evidence to corroborate this claim. Family members of Salah indicate that he had recently expressed anger about “the silence over the killing of one of his military friends by Israeli soldiers during his military service at the border.” It is possible that this policeman wanted to avenge the death of his comrade. His body was returned by the Israeli government to be buried in Egypt.

The conflicting reports and lack of clear facts make it difficult to determine with certainty if this will lead to any type of broader conflict, militarily or politically, but history indicates that this is unlikely. Similar incidents have taken place in the past. One such incident was when an Egyptian Border Policeman, Suleiman Kharter, killed 7 Israeli tourists in Sinai. He received a life sentence from an Egyptian court. This incident did not lead to a larger conflict, so there is no reason to think this one will.

Migrant Deportation in Libya

Eastern Libyan Forces Stage Mass Deportation of Migrants

Forces in Eastern Libya have forcibly removed over 2,000 migrants with the majority holding Egyptian nationality. These deportations follow a recent uptrend in severe measures to prohibit illegal border crossings and occupation within the country. Libya serves as a hotspot for migration between the Middle East and Africa to Europe. A sequence of raids was conducted in Musaid and other Eastern Libyan areas, with some resulting in shootouts between traffickers and authorities. Of the 4,000 migrants found, over 2,000 were identified as Egyptian. These migrants were returned to about 2km from the Egyptian border and forced to re-enter on foot. Other migrants, holding nationalities from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sudan, and other states were relocated to Qanfouda detention center and are currently undergoing the deportation process.

Due to the influx of migrants within the country, this instance serves as just one example of the government’s attempts to hinder migration to Europe. Following the raids, a harbor used for migrant traffic was destroyed by authorities. Boat travel is one of the primary methods of illegal migration, as most voyages are incredibly dangerous in attempts to complete travel to Europe. Crossing the Mediterranean Sea, often on ill-equipped boats and rafts, poses an immense threat for wrecks and drowning-related incidents. The primary immigration point, Italy, has seen an uptick in these attempts this year, mirroring both increased migration efforts and Libyan deterrence and deportation. As the UNHCR reports, Libyan crackdown efforts have resulted in the detention of 1,800 migrants in the past month. Accusations of abuse have become increasingly frequent in many of the detention centers. With Libya being home to almost half a million migrants total, both trafficking and apprehension appear to be simultaneously growing as deterrence efforts increase to counteract illegal border crossing, both being at the expense of migrant safety.

Libya and European Union nations have supported an increase in migrant deterrence and detention efforts. These have come under criticism from the United Nations in recent months for human rights violations committed. Many EU states, including Italy, have begun funding Libyan authority forces for coastguard training efforts in a crackdown on migrants that return them to detention centers within Libya, which the UN cites as the site of the violations. While the UN has regarded this support from European nations as “aiding and abetting” the infringement of migrants’ human rights, an EU spokesperson regarded this support as training for security that upholds the rights of migrants in the process. However, with multiple accounts of physical and verbal violence within detention centers, the alternative solution of making the voyage across the Mediterranean holds equally as futile protection for migrants. In April of this year, dozens of deceased migrants were recovered off of the Libyan coast after a failed attempt to make the trek across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe. With this adding to the total of over 500 migrant deaths from sea travel-related instances, the safety of refugees at all stages of the migration process remains in jeopardy.

With the continued funding from European powers for migrant deterrence and detention programs in conjunction with the pre-existing unsafe trafficking processes, the continued destruction of safe procedures and protections leaves the migrant in a threatened position from all perspectives. Without safe measures put in place within detention centers to prohibit and prosecute violations in addition to new avenues of safe migration, migrants are exposed to violence throughout the entire migration process. Many illegal trafficking work to maximize their profits subjecting the migrants to perilous conditions. As the continued destruction of safe migration options becomes mitigated, migrants are forced to turn to these avenues as their only opportunity of improving their condition, losing their autonomy within the greater situation at play. Being forced to adapt to more dangerous methods of travel and transportation, they are vulnerable to their preservation of self and life. With the increase in crackdowns such as the most recent in Eastern Libya, it is migrants who are inevitably stuck within their current condition, as the threat of violence and death appears upon every avenue.