The National Interest Foundation Newsletter, Issue 211

The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 211, October 20, 2023

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s analysis: We look into the human cost of the war in Gaza, the challenges and dangers facing the healthcare workers, and the impossible circumstances that many Gazan refugees face.


Casualties Rise in Gaza

The widespread death and devastation in Gaza is largely caused by Israeli air strikes. (Photo from AP)

The Human Toll in Gaza

By Jacob Van Veldhuizen

Some 3,478 Gazans and at least 69 Palestinians from the Occupied West Bank have been killed as of October 19th. There have also been a reported 12,065 injured in Gaza along with 1,300 in the occupied West Bank. An estimated 1,400 Israelis have also been killed and 3,800 injured during this conflict, primarily during the initial Izzeldin AlQassam Brigades attack on October 7. Civilian casualties are nothing new in conflicts between Palestinians and Israelis, but the death toll has been larger than in any previous clashes.

A particularly alarming (and unfortunately common) issue has been the Israeli lack of effort to differentiate between civilian and military targets. Schools, hospitals, and places of worship have all been bombed. There have been several instances where those fleeing the conflict (as instructed by the Israeli Defense Forces) were also targeted. There have also been at least 11 journalists, 28 medical staff, and 14 United Nations workers killed. A third of those killed have been children. Half of the 2 million people that live in Gaza are under 18.

In the past, a disproportionate number of those killed during escalations were Palestinians. Around 4,000 Palestinians and under 100 Israelis died in the previous 3 confrontations. These took place in 2008-9, 2012, and 2014. This conflict is the first time there have been many casualties on the Israeli side whether soldiers, settlers, or civilians. This magnitude of loss is unprecedented, and the rage is being enflamed by racist and dehumanizing rhetoric from members of the Israeli government. Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, referred to Gazans as human animals, for example.

Israel has yet to launch their ground invasion as of this writing. A ground offensive is expected to cause a dramatic increase in civilian casualties. 3 Israeli officers have stated that the immediate goals of the invasion are to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, demolish the Izzeldin AlQassam Brigades’ tunnel network, and push the people back to the Egyptian border, no matter how many civilian casualties are caused. There seems to be little concern about civilian casualties and this trend will likely continue. Israeli forces will also likely suffer heavy casualties. They will be walking into an unfamiliar urban landscape with the potential for boobytraps and ambushes around every corner.

It does not appear the Israeli Defense Forces intend to differentiate between civilians and militants. The impossible-to-follow evacuation order coupled with the continued dehumanizing rhetoric being used by

Israeli politicians indicate that the Israelis are trying to blunt the international, as well as internal, outcry that will come as civilian casualties continue to rise. The evacuation order appears to have been little more than a public relations stunt. There is nowhere for residents of Gaza City to go, and even those able to move are being bottlenecked and bombed on their way south. Many Gazans also fear another mass displacement. Half of Gaza’s 2 million people are already refugees from areas now controlled by the Israelis. The shortage of fuel and electricity also compounds the difficulties already faced.

Another worrying detail is that there is neither an offramp nor a clearly stated end goal. Israeli measures have so far appeared to be reactionary, although numerous pundits posit that the engagement was either orchestrated or that the Israelis view it as an opportunity to settle scores with the Iranians. The American and Western European responses to the situation lend credence to this speculation. Nevertheless, there is little idea of what a post-war future looks like. There is currently no room for peace talks or even a temporary truce to allow humanitarian relief. So, it is impossible to estimate the scale of the impending humanitarian crisis. Resolutions from the U.N. are being blocked by the United States. It is unclear if the Israeli forces intend to occupy Gaza during this offensive, which would be disastrous for both sides or simply pave the way for future encroachment. One thing, however, is clear. Many more innocent people will die.

Medical Staff Targeted

Supplies are dwindling in Gaza making it difficult to administer care to those who are wounded. (Photo from Reuters)

The Targeting of Healthcare Workers and Facilities

By Brenna Haggerty

An air strike hit the Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza on the evening of October 17th. Gaza’s health ministry reported that at least 500 had been killed in the initial blast. Most victims were women and children, as has been the case since the onset of the war. Gazan officials accuse the Israeli Defense Forces of orchestrating the attack, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that the militant group Islamic Jihad was responsible. Regardless of where the blame may rest, persistent attacks on numerous hospitals have caused considerable numbers of dead and wounded among the civilian residents of Gaza. Doctors are exhausted with little resources and patients outnumber available beds. These factors contribute to the seemingly never-ending nightmare medical staff are experiencing – they cannot return home once their workday is over because their homes have been destroyed.

In its attempt to validate claims that militants caused the catastrophe, the IDF released what it claims was an intercepted call between two Islamic Jihad members discussing the “failed” rocket that crashed into the hospital in Gaza. Upon arrival in Israel, President Biden told Netanyahu during a press conference that the horrific act was committed by “the other team.” In a bold display of support, the President of the United States claimed that he has personally seen data that clears Israel of accountability for the incident. However, neither the Americans nor the Israelis have presented any evidence to the public; and all indications are that the Israelis are responsible. In fact, two separate investigations by the Qatari AlJazeera and British Channel 4 media channels disproved the allegations while numerous military and ballistics experts have debunked the veracity of the claim. An Israeli official even stated on social media that the IDF was responsible for the attack in a now-deleted tweet.
The Israelis have a history of committing war crimes such as the attack on Al Ahili Arab Hospital yet deflecting blame knowing the likelihood of an investigation is nonexistent.

Videos posted on social media immediately preceding and during the attack provide insight into how the attack unfolded. People present at the blast are heard saying “they” have struck Gaza, typically a reference to Israeli attacks. Based on an analysis of the video from military analysts, some speculate that the blast was not an airstrike; the fire looks more like that from a propellant fire than the result of a strike. Many analysts have made sure to add that it is very difficult to come to a concrete conclusion based on video evidence alone. The day following the blast, a spokesperson from the Israeli military claimed that there was no damage to the surrounding buildings of the hospital as would typically occur following an airstrike. He also questioned how quickly Gaza was able to report an accurate approximation of casualties; however, Palestinians retort that it was a hospital with the numbers present known and quickly counted.

It is unlikely that the Israelis will ever change their stance regarding who is responsible for the attack. Regardless, this would not be the first time the nation targeted healthcare facilities and workers since the onset of the war roughly two weeks ago. Since hostilities were reignited over a dozen ambulances and health institutions have been hit. Targeting protected places, such as schools and hospitals, is considered a war crime under international humanitarian law. Even before the strike that killed upwards of 500 civilians, Doctors Without Borders/Medicins sans Frontieres released a statement regarding illegal bombings. As a result of targeted attacks, they had counted 18 ambulances destroyed and eight medical facilities partially damaged or completely obliterated. Sixteen medical workers were killed in these strikes. MSF reported these figures on October 12, days before the strike that killed 500 citizens.

In addition to the direct attacks, emergency service vehicles and workers face tremendous difficulties reaching victims. Israeli forces block entrances and exits to various cities, prohibiting the transfer of casualties and the injured. When Palestinian emergency responders are given the go-ahead by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to enter blocked-off areas, they are still attacked by the IDF.

Israel often claims that Palestinians receive warnings before a strike to evacuate the area. Palestinians, both civilians and correspondents, on the ground, dispute these claims. Waleed Siam, the Palestinian ambassador to Japan, announced that the Israeli military gave the Al Ahli Arab Hospital a warning on an hour’s notice to evacuate. This statement contradicts the Israeli government’s narrative regarding their military procedures involving air strikes. Even when warnings are given, they are incredibly short notice, sometimes giving targeted facilities only three-minute warnings. The orders to evacuate hospitals and other healthcare facilities make it impossible for adequate care to be given and to safely remove patients who are in critical condition.

The repeated attacks on these crucial facilities and individuals are plunging Gaza even further into a humanitarian crisis. Civilians are using hospitals as shelters because these locations are supposed to be protected – or at the very least, not attacked – in accordance with international humanitarian law. Hospitals have had fewer resources to begin with because of Israel’s restrictions on basic needs for Palestinians, but the war has exacerbated the needs of those in Gaza. Workers report that children are coming in with traumatic injuries looking for help, but the hospital is too overwhelmed. There is no capacity to help all of those who are suffering. This reality impacts not only those injured by the strikes but also existing patients in these facilities. It also forces doctors to make the impossible decisions of who they should save, who requires more care, and who is unfortunately beyond saving.

In addition, Gazans are living with minimal fuel or electricity since the Israelis cut off all access and threatened to bomb humanitarian convoys from Egypt. Israeli’s oppressive measures have incapacitated hospitals and other necessary services from assisting the civilian population. In a social media post from Middle East Eye, a doctor solemnly recounts how his hospital relies on a fuel-based generator. He says once this fuel runs out, “disaster will happen in the hospital.” He also notes that some areas of the hospital are now without water. Without proper access to electricity or clean water, life-saving procedures and medicine will be inaccessible to thousands. MSF reports that they have already used roughly half of their emergency provisions. All these factors will only cause the number of casualties and injuries in Gaza to grow.

President Biden just recently announced that he is sending $100 million in aid to Gaza and the West Bank, but conditioning the assistance on having systems in place to ensure the money goes towards civilians and is not administered by Hamas officials. The question remains, how catastrophic a humanitarian disaster will be by the time the aid finds its way to those who need it?

Impossible Decisions

Palestinians face impossible decisions as they are forced to leave their homes. (Photo from AFP)

Refugees in Gaza

By Colin Bailey

As Israel prepares to mount a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip, thousands of Palestinian refugees continue to migrate south in hopes of finding refuge from the war. Over a week since the escalation of the conflict, the supply of food and water has dwindled as the refugees are unable to leave the territory. Despite Arab nations declaring their support for the Palestinians, none has been willing to take in refugees.

Since the Ezzeldin AlQassam Brigades, the paramilitary arm of Hamas, launched an offensive that resulted in 1,300 Israeli dead, the Benjamin Netanyahu government declared war on Gaza. Hospital and media reports confirm that over 3,500 Palestinians, a third of whom are children, have been killed because of Israeli bombardment.

Thousands of Palestinians have been displaced since the Israeli Defense Forces issued a “24-hour notice” for civilians to evacuate the north, instructing approximately 1.1 million to move towards the Rafah border in the south. The deadline has since been extended ostensibly to allow civilians more time to evacuate, but thousands have yet to leave either due to physical incapacity or a refusal to leave their homes. Other noncombatants are unable to comply due to a combination of the volume of migrants, transportation limitations, and damage or detours on the major roads leading to the southern tip.

Israeli objectives appear contradictory. Despite the displacement order to move south, Israeli Defense Forces have shelled targets there claiming they are Hamas outposts. An airstrike hit the Rafah Crossing on October 17th, complicating efforts underway to open the crossing. Civilians have amassed in or around the area awaiting permission from the Egyptians to leave, as well as allow humanitarian convoys to enter. Some families have decided to move back to Gaza City. Statements from the Abu Marasa family underscore what many inhabitants have concluded: “Why should we be martyrs in Khan Younis? We would better die as martyrs in our houses. Let the whole building fall on our heads,” Saleem Abu Marasa explained as his family prepared to turn to Gaza City.

Egypt and Jordan, two countries with land borders on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, have announced they will not accept refugees from Palestine, fearing the Israelis are machinating a forced exodus. While in a meeting with the chancellor of Germany, Jordanian King Abdullah II said, “This is a situation that has to be handled within Gaza and the West Bank.” Abdullah II has called for a ceasefire and has condemned Israel’s missile bombardment of Gaza.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has also denounced Israeli missile strikes. The Egyptian government has prevented anyone crossing from Gaza into Egypt, stating, “The threat there is significant because it means the liquidation of this [Palestinian] cause. It’s important for its people to stay steadfast and exist on its land.”

Forcing large portions of the population to leave would embolden the Israelis to establish more settlements in the occupied territories making the refugee situation permanent rather than temporary. Even if civilians could leave northern Gaza, their ability to leave the entire enclave rests with the decisions of neighboring states. These states dealt with nearly a million Palestinian refugees during the Nakba (catastrophe) in 1948. Over 500 Palestinian villages were destroyed making way for Israeli settlements and real estate developments. The expropriation of the land makes it extremely difficult for Palestinian refugees and their descendants to reclaim their properties, even while many continue to demand their right of return. The same fear is felt once again at the prospect of Israel forcing the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza to delegitimize their claim on the land.

A lockdown of Gaza has been the status quo since Egypt and Israel established a land, air, and sea blockade on the enclave in 2007, restricting access to the outside world. Movement across the borders is heavily curtailed with an extensive 7-meter stone wall along the entirety of the Gaza-Israeli border, colloquially known as the “Iron Wall.” The border is also enforced with a 6-meter-tall, barbed wire fence with observation towers stationed along the line of the 1950 Armistice Agreement reached with neighboring Arab states. Sensors have been installed along its entirety, with remote control machine guns used to deter people from entering within 100 meters of the border. The border is also kept under 24-hour surveillance by armed guards.

With no functional airports in the enclave, travel in and out of the territory is restricted between three border crossings. The Erez Crossing and Kerem Shalom Crossing are located along the Gaza-Israeli border and are heavily militarized. Movement through these crossings is permitted largely for non-Palestinians and laborers and is the only checkpoint where food and supplies are permitted to enter the country under Israeli surveillance. Since the Hamas attacks on October 7th, transit through these checkpoints has been shut down, preventing any goods from entering the enclave.

The third access point is the Rafah Border Crossing, which is the only checkpoint along the Egyptian-Gaza border; and it has a 14-kilometer buffer zone in place on the Egyptian side of the border. It is restricted primarily to foreign nationals and Gazans with designated travel permits which are hard to acquire and oftentimes take several months to years to be approved.

Observers estimate that nearly one million civilians have already been displaced due to the bombs in northern Gaza, with these numbers expected to increase in the weeks to follow. With nowhere else to go but within the Strip, United Nations’ schools-turned-shelters have become overcrowded as thousands try to seek haven elsewhere. A sea of tents has been constructed outside the major cities of Rafah and Khan Yunis for the refugees. Conditions are expected to grow more dire as food and water run scarce. In addition, the lack of clean water and electricity has effectively shut down the healthcare system as well as caused significant concerns about the spread of disease. Unless the international community intervenes, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is expected to increase exponentially in the weeks ahead.

Enter the text or HTML code here

NIF USA