A recent poll from CNN found that approximately two-thirds of voters aged 18-34 disapproved of how Joe Biden has been handling his job as president. That same poll found that those voters believe Biden is “part of the problem” when speaking on the issues the nation currently faces. This discontent extends to the Democratic party, with half of young voters believing that Democratic lawmakers in Congress are also part of the problem. A recent national NBC News Poll also shows Biden trails Trump in the 18-34 age group 42% to 46%, respectively. The decline is significant given that Biden won the young vote by more than 20 points in the last election; and he even led the young vote as recently as September of this year.

When the first attacks occurred in October, the American public spoke out in immediate support of Israel. Yet as the indiscriminate attacks continue, the disparity between the Israelis and Palestinians has become clear. Public opinion is slowly shifting against the actions of the Israeli government, especially among young voters. In a recent NBC News Poll, 70% of voters aged 18-34 disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates commented: “It’s stunning… the impact the Israel-Hamas war is having on Biden.” He went further saying Joe Biden is at a “uniquely low point in his presidency…due to how Americans are viewing his foreign policy actions.” This marks a unique trend in public opinion, as Americans are rarely so significantly swayed by how the government approaches international affairs.

Biden and Harris heavily relied on Millennial and Gen Z voters to win the 2020 elections. The tactics they used to attract them worked, resulting in the largest turnout of young voters in the country’s history. They will likely employ this same strategy to prepare for 2024, presumably facing off against former President Trump once again. Despite the political field being full of Republican candidates, Donald Trump still leads polls. According to polls from FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading his party by upwards of 60%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 13%, a gap of almost 50 points.

Before the war in Gaza began, young voters were already growing dissatisfied with Biden. A poll from The New York Times released on August 1 of this year found that over half of voters aged 18-29 disapproved of how Biden was handling things as President. Even in May 2022, his approval rating among Gen Z and Millennials was under 40%. These numbers are a steep drop from the 59% approval from Gen Z in January 2021 at the time of the President’s inauguration.

Despite the obvious and overwhelming dissatisfaction with Biden, Democrats have not looked for, or even suggested the possibility of, an alternative nominee. There are currently three other potential nominees, none of whom seem viable in comparison to Biden. Although Vice President Kamala Harris is Biden’s running mate for 2024, many Democrats are calling for Biden to replace her. FiveThirtyEight reports that Harris’s approval rating is even lower than Biden’s at 39.5%. Some believe that such a move would be too risky. Black voters helped bring the pair to victory in 2020; and replacing Harris may alienate a large demographic that Biden and Harris will once again need to rely on in 2024.

Still, with the election a year away, an unpredictable foreign relations landscape, and future verdicts in Trump’s trials, the opinion polls are subject to change. It is worth noting, however, that the demographic who supported Biden the most in his first campaign is now beginning to look for alternatives; and party leaders may be forced to listen.

Shifting Congress

A growing number of members of Congress are calling for a ceasefire. (Photo from X)

Congressional Ceasefire Advocates Grow in Number

By Colin Bailey

Sixty-eight percent of adults support a ceasefire according to a recent Reuters poll. Conversely, only 32% of respondents said “the U.S. should support Israel” when asked about America’s involvement in the conflict. This is down drastically from the 41% of respondents in October with both sides of the aisle supporting a ceasefire.

Politicians, however, remain strongly opposed to demands for a ceasefire, even though their constituents have demonstrably shown they favor one. It was only this week that two senators finally expressed public support for an end to the violence: Dick Durbin (D) of Illinois and Jeff Merkley (D) of Oregon. On Monday, Merkley posted on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, “I am calling for a ceasefire – a cessation of hostilities by both sides.”

The House of Representatives has predominantly opposed pressuring the Israelis to halt or end their campaign with only 40 of the 435 members pushing for a pause. Most government officials continue to move to apportiate financial and military aid, including reports that American boots are on the ground.  Notably, of the congressmen calling for a ceasefire, three are Jewish: Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Sara Jacobs (D-CA), and Becca Balint (D-VT). Jacobs stated on X last Saturday that “[i]t is time for a bilateral ceasefire – to immediately release the hostages; to establish humanitarian access and allow fuel, food, water, and medical care into Gaza; and to end the bombardment of millions of Palestinian civilians.”

Congressmen in the House showing a greater propensity to change their views in line with their public opinion than Senators is a common occurrence, given that the former serve for two years while the latter enjoy six-year terms. Nevertheless, the majority remain staunchly intent on silencing criticism of the Israelis; and in late October voted to censure Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), the only Palestinian-American in Congress, for her stance on the conflict. Defiantly, she stated: “While there are growing attempts to silence the diverse coalition of people advocating for peace, fighting to save lives no matter their faith or ethnicity should not be controversial, we will not be intimidated, we will not be silenced, and we will not stop calling for an end to this violence.”

Public opinion appears to have affected the executive branch. A recent, national NBC News poll shows that President Joe Biden’s approval rating has declined to 40%, the lowest level of his presidency, with majorities of voters disapproving of his handling of foreign policy and the Israeli-Gaza war. While initially turning a blind eye to the indiscriminate assault on Gaza, the Administration recently softened their stance, with President Biden “announcing $100 million in new US funding for both Gaza and the West Bank.” He added “This money will support more than one million displaced and conflict-affected Palestinians, including emergency needs in Gaza.”

Members of Congress opposed to a ceasefire cite the hostages taken by Hamas as a critical reason for their reticence, insisting on their unconditional release. The Administration for its part has worked in parallel on providing humanitarian assistance as well as pressing the Israelis to compromise. After weeks of negotiations, it appears 50 female and child hostages, including three American citizens, will finally be released as a four-day truce has finally been agreed. Should this truce hold, it will be the first time in seven weeks that Gaza will not be struck by Israeli missiles. Plans are already in the works for the ceasefire to be extended day by day so long as hostages continue to be released.

The Israelis will release 150 Palestinian women and children currently imprisoned in exchange. Should the terms of the ceasefire be implemented as planned, congresspeople in the Senate and House may finally take a more favorable view of supporting a permanent ceasefire to ensure the continued release of hostages and the end of unnecessary civilian bloodshed.