The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 226, March 1, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. This week, we provide insight regarding the way in which the 2024 presidential primaries in Michigan highlight the salience of the War on Gaza, explore the filing of a lawsuit by several rights and civil liberties groups over lack of transparency on Israel’s entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program, and delve into the staggering number of journalists that have been killed by Israel during the War on Gaza and how it compares to other past conflicts.

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The 2024 Michigan Presidential Primaries Highlight the Salience of the War on Gaza

The 2024 Michigan Presidential Primaries Highlight the Salience of the War on Gaza

Michigan has long been a decisive state in U.S. presidential elections. In the 2016 election, former President Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes; and then in 2020, Michigan helped deliver President Joe Biden’s eventual victory as he won the state by around 154,000 votes. These thin margins demonstrate the anticipated importance of Michigan in the upcoming 2024 general election. It is a battleground state with 15 electoral votes, and candidates who have won Michigan in the general election have historically tended to win the presidency. In this way, the results of the Michigan presidential primaries help give us insight into what to potentially expect come November. On the Republican side of the Michigan primaries, the results showed that Trump is the clear heavy front-runner to win the party’s nomination, beating Nikki Haley by a wide gap of around 68% to 26%. Trump has been sweeping Haley in primaries across the nation, suggesting that he is near certain to be the 2024 presidential candidate for the Republican Party. Surveys conducted do however indicate that some Republicans – especially college-educated, moderate, and suburban voters – have reservations about voting for Trump due to his array of legal woes. This segment of the electorate may end up gravitating towards third-party candidates. On the Democratic side of the primaries, incumbent President Biden unsurprisingly won with 81% of votes, but a noteworthy 13% – which amounts to over 100,000 voters, cast their ballots as “uncommitted” due to backlash against Biden’s support of Israel’s destructive War on Gaza that has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians. Although it still registers as a presidential primary victory for Biden, the results signal that Democratic voters in Michigan are not nearly as enthusiastic as they were during the last cycle. In 2020, a total of 840,360 Michiganders voted for Biden in the Democratic primary compared to around 625,000 this time around. Several factors can explain this shortcoming, but the most significant among them is that many Michigan Democrats disapprove of Biden’s handling of the War on Gaza.

A grassroots campaign called “Listen to Michigan” was thrown together to unite anti-war and pro-human rights Michiganders. Voters were urged to choose the “uncommitted” slot in the Democratic Party’s presidential primary, as a statement protest vote denouncing the Biden administration’s stance on the Gaza War. The aim of casting an “uncommitted” vote, according to “Listen to Michigan” campaign manager Layla Elabed, was to warn President Biden that voters were dissatisfied with his position and that he could lose key swing state votes in the general election if a permanent ceasefire was not put into place. The original goal of the group was to garner at least 10,000 votes, a similar margin to Trump’s victory total back in 2016. In the end, over 100,000 people, around 13% of all Democratic primary participants, decided to vote “uncommitted” – a substantial number more than 10 times higher than the stated goal. Considering that the presidential general election margins in 2016 and 2020 were between 10,000 and 155,000 total votes, this is an amount that could have a major impact on whether Michigan goes “blue” or “red” come November.

The notable number of “uncommitted” voters appears to have come from two key demographics in the state, Arab-Americans and young voters. Michigan is home to more than 310,000 people of Middle Eastern and North African descent, which comprises about 3.1% of the state’s total population. According to NPR, 70% of Michigan’s heavily Arab-American counties supported Biden back in 2020. Furthermore, Michigan has a high young voter turnout, and 75% of voters aged 18-29 have overwhelmingly disapproved of Biden’s handling of the War on Gaza. The Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), a pro-Israel group, attempted to combat “Listen to Michigan” by running ads in support of Biden and urging people to vote for him in the primary. DMFI is simultaneously attacking progressive Democrats who are critical of Israel’s actions, especially the Congressmen and Congresswomen known as “The Squad,” making efforts to recruit challengers to these members. It is believed that The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which has affiliations with other pro-Israel groups such as DMFI, plans to spend at least $100 million this election cycle to combat those who disapprove of Israel’s actions.

The results of the Michigan presidential primaries strongly suggest that we are on course for a rematch between Biden and Trump in the general election. If the Democratic primary is any indication, Biden’s foreign policy positions may play an impactful role in dissuading Michiganders – particularly Arab-Americans and young voters – from casting their ballot for him in November. Polls conducted in recent months seem to substantiate the belief that there will be a tight race in Michigan, as the current gap there between Trump and Biden sits at approximately 4 percentage points (which is also equal to the poll’s margin of error). In an upcoming November election that is expected to be so close, it is extremely feasible to forecast that a significant number of voters deciding to cast ballots for third-party candidates or abstaining from voting altogether could sway the election in one direction or the other. One thing that we know for certain from the outcome of the Michigan primaries is that the “uncommitted” vote has underscored the salience of the War on Gaza for many people.

Lawsuit Filed Over Lack of Transparency on Israel’s Entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program

Lawsuit Filed Over Lack of Transparency on Israel’s Entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program

Late last week, several rights and civil liberties groups filed a lawsuit asking that a U.S. district court in California compel the Department of State (DOS) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to respond to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request which seeks information regarding the nature of Israel’s entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program back in 2023. The program allows certain countries’ citizens to come to the United States for tourism or business stays of up to 90 days, without a formal visa. To date, neither DOS nor DHS has produced any documentation in response to the FOIA request merely aimed at providing transparency about the recent move, which was initiated despite the Israeli government’s violation of its terms through discrimination against Palestinian-Americans trying to enter Israel. Rights advocates and experts have consistently expressed concerns over Israel’s noncompliance with the visa waiver program because of this. As a result, the aforementioned lawsuit was filed with the help of an array of prominent organizations including the Center for Constitutional Rights, the National Immigration Project, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, and Muslim Advocates.

The criticism towards Israel’s entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program is legitimate, as observers have outlined how Israel continues to discriminate against Americans of Palestinian descent and Palestinians holding U.S. citizenship at its entry ports, thus violating the commitments it makes as a condition for joining the program. Israel has also been known to make it difficult for Americans of Palestinian descent to rent cars at Ben Gurion International Airport, and imposes a two-tiered discriminatory system which treats Palestinian-Americans differently from other Americans. Back in November of last year, authorities in the United States themselves even warned that Israel is violating the program by not allowing entry into the country of Palestinian-Americans living in the West Bank since October 7th.

The recent lawsuit is not the first one related to Israel’s controversial admittance into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program. In September of last year, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) filed a lawsuit over the move due to longstanding complaints from Palestinian-Americans and other Arab-Americans about discrimination faced when traveling to illegally-occupied Palestinian territory. The lawsuit highlighted the ways in which Israel enforces limitations specifically against Palestinian-Americans, such as restricting their freedom of movement across checkpoints and subjecting them to harsh interrogation and detention at airports and land crossings. This runs counter to the requirements of the foreign countries participating in the visa waiver program, which is supposed to ensure that all Americans are treated equally by them. The lawsuit therefore sought an injunction preventing a decision on Israel’s entry into the program until it provides guarantees of full and equal privileges for all Americans without any distinctions.

There have been many first-hand accounts of Palestinian-Americans being discriminated against at the hands of Israeli authorities while traveling in the West Bank. Those who are subjected to the unfair treatment detail the abusive and biased tactics that are used against them which include being arbitrarily detained, blindfolded, and handcuffed, denied entry to certain places, and intensively questioned without merit. Critics of Israel’s entry into the U.S. Visa Waiver Program have drawn attention to the clearly calculated attempts to appease concerns about their discriminatory practices by recently easing restrictions against Palestinian-Americans – something that has obviously only been done now that the spotlight is on these policies. Other activists have also justifiably asked how a country like Israel – which systematically abuses human rights – can be admitted into a program that is intended for American allies that share a commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Ultimately, a foreign country’s genuine adherence to the unwavering equal treatment of all Americans is an essential component of the U.S. Visa Waiver Program’s integrity, and Israel’s violation of that should disqualify its entry into it.

Staggering Number of Journalists Killed by Israel During the War on Gaza

A Staggering Number of Journalists Have Been Killed by Israel During the War on Gaza

Journalists play a critical role in educating and informing the public during times of war, helping provide first-hand accounts that shape public opinion and shed light on what is really taking place. Their work is something that is especially important when trying to document human rights abuses and uncover war crimes. They also often times offer a non-state influenced perspective, a key task as information can be skewed by the countries and actors themselves who are waging war. In this way, journalists are watchdogs that fact-check and hold public figures to account, as evident through the reporting during conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and today in Ukraine and Gaza. War zones have always been treacherous sites for reporters that can lead to injury and death, but journalists are intended to be afforded protections, in the same manner that civilians are. Article 79 of the Geneva Convention states that journalists engaged in dangerous professional missions in zones of armed conflict are civilians, and as such, they are granted the full scope of protection under international humanitarian law. However, for embedded journalists in Gaza, their ability to safely and accurately report has been extremely violated by Israeli forces. Palestinian civilians have not been afforded humanitarian protections either, with the death toll in Gaza now surpassing 30,000 – many of whom are women and children.

According to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), to date at least 94 journalists and media workers – including 89 Palestinians, 2 Israelis, and 3 Lebanese – have been killed since the onset of the war. This tragedy reverses the global downward trend of journalist deaths. To put this number of journalist deaths into perspective, the Iraq War saw 229 journalists killed over eight years, with 56 journalist deaths in 2006 being the record high in a single year. The disturbing number of journalists killed in Gaza has also surpassed the total number of journalists killed in the two-decade-long wars in Vietnam (63) and Afghanistan (76). The CPJ reports that the conflict has claimed the lives of more journalists in three months than have ever been killed in a single country over an entire year, at a rate of 0.72 killed every day. The War in Ukraine for comparison, which has been ongoing for the past two years, has seen 17 journalists killed at a rate of 0.02 per day. The killing of journalists in Gaza is singlehandedly raising the global total of journalists killed. The 2023 global total is the highest since 2015, and is a 44% increase on 2022’s figures. This is a worrying and alarming trend, as journalists are forced to risk their lives to provide their critical public service.

What is particularly shocking, is the fact that Israeli forces have not attempted to avoid killing journalists either. When asked if their journalists would be protected during the conflict, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) told Reuters and Agence France-Presse (AFP) that they could not guarantee the safety of journalists in Gaza, sending a signal that Israel’s offensive is targeting indiscriminately and that nowhere is safe for journalists. There is evidence to suggest that some of these killings have been targeted as well. Issam Abdallah, a Lebanese visual journalist for Reuters, was killed while covering cross-border fire on October 13th even though Abdallah’s group was reporting from a location where no fighting was taking place. There are several other instances of Israeli forces purposely targeting journalists, accusing them of being terrorists or aiding Hamas despite no substantiation to these reprehensible claims, and no credible evidence ever being produced. The killing of journalists, like the indiscriminate targeting of civilian infrastructure and sites, is one of many breaches of international law since the beginning of the war that could be used as evidence at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Another measure of journalistic and press freedom that Israel has violated is the jailing of journalists. Israel has arrested dozens of journalists, and was tied for the sixth-largest jailer of journalists in 2023, along with Iran. Last year in 2023, 320 journalists were imprisoned worldwide, marking the second-highest figure since 1992 (the first being 2022). These are troubling numbers that put impartial and investigative journalism at risk, and threaten democratic best practices. Recently, 11-year-old Sumayya Wushah has begun reporting the conditions on the ground for Palestinians, providing a beacon of hope that journalism and the truth will persevere.