The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 251, September 6, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s edition, we provide analysis regarding U.S. President Biden’s criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for not doing enough to secure a Gaza ceasefire deal, examine the United Kingdom’s decision to suspend arms export licenses to Israel over international law violations, and delve into the concern with a Venezuelan judge’s issuing of an arrest warrant for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez.

Editor: Bassam Tarbush

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Biden Criticizes Netanyahu for Not Doing Enough to Secure a Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Biden Criticizes Netanyahu for Not Doing Enough to Secure a Gaza Ceasefire Deal

By Jake Spiller

Talks regarding bringing about a ceasefire deal in Gaza remain underway, with this past weekend’s news that the bodies of six hostages were recovered – including one dual Israeli-American citizen – putting increased pressure on officials to reach an agreement to secure the remaining hostages and halt the devastating war which has left Gaza in ruins and killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, an alarming number of whom have been children. The White House and the U.S. negotiation team is seeking to finalize a proposal with the involvement of fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt. When asked if a new deal would be presented in the coming days, U.S. President Biden replied “We’re very close to that,” however, when asked if Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is doing enough, he bluntly and forcefully said only one word: “No.” This of course refers to the evident frustration that many feel Netanyahu is purposefully preventing a final deal from being instituted under the guise of a demand that Israel maintain its military forces in Gaza. The growing dissatisfaction has also seen a record number of protesters take to the streets in Tel Aviv to demand action from Netanyahu in agreeing to a deal. A mother of one of the remaining hostages was recently quoted as saying that “Each passing day is like a Russian roulette that Netanyahu is playing.”

Back in late May, a three-phase proposal was unveiled by President Biden which would have started with a six-week ceasefire that would see Israel withdraw its forces from the more populated areas of Gaza, followed by an initial release of hostages, and then negotiation to implement a lasting ceasefire to include the withdrawal of all Israeli forces, the release of remaining hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and post-war reconstruction. Hamas is believed to have accepted this framework to move forward, yet Netanyahu ultimately stated that Israel would not accept a ceasefire deal which put an end to the war and that a permanent ceasefire was a “nonstarter.” Israeli officials have been accused of adding new demands and derailing the negotiation process, prompting some to ask why it seems like Netanyahu is trying to rewrite a deal that seems acceptable to the parties involved? To answer this, observers point to his personal and strategic motives to keep the war going and remain in power. Currently, Netanyahu is being kept in power with the backing of far-right parties that threaten to withdraw their support if the war doesn’t end on their terms, which includes not releasing any Palestinian prisoners and keeping an Israeli military presence in Gaza post-war. Losing the support of these political parties would almost certainly lead to Netanyahu’s coalition collapsing, and therefore, him being ousted from his position as prime minister. Notably, Netanyahu is also under major criminal corruption charges, which gives him personal motivation to stay in power and keep the war going so as to delay action against him.

Regarding what Netanyahu is defiantly seeking in Gaza, he is first calling for Israeli control over the Gaza border with Egypt, which Israel calls The Philadelphi corridor. Netanyahu insists on the IDF not leaving it, claiming that Hamas uses it to resupply arms, however Egypt completely rejects this, saying that it has taken actions to secure its side of the border and that an IDF presence would go against the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty. To Egypt and others, IDF forces here would threaten peace and risk destabilizing the region. The second area where Netanyahu seeks a post-war Israeli presence is along the Netzarim Corridor – a road which Israel has used to break Gaza into a northern and southern half, giving it sole control over movement between. If Israel is allowed to maintain the Netzarim Corridor, it will enable control over the movement of Palestinians back north to their homes post-fighting. Thus, for Palestinian civilians who only wish to return to their home areas in the north of Gaza, this would mean having to wait in long queues and be subjected to search, interrogation, and arbitrary arrest at the hands of IDF forces.

According to numerous sources, it is Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining a military presence in Gaza that is holding up any potential ceasefire deal. This is at odds with President Biden, Egypt, Hamas, and many in Israel who are calling on the prime minister to agree to end the fighting in exchange for the remaining hostages. Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority joined Egypt in rejecting an Israeli position along the Philadelphi corridor. Some of the latest defiance from Netanyahu came during a recent press conference held on September 3rd in which he ruled out any withdrawal from the corridor. Importantly, another problematic element is that Israel has given no timetable on when it would withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, only when “it feels safe.” This has led many analysts to rightly view this as a cynical means of trying to justify long-term Israeli military presence in Gaza, just in the same way that Netanyahu has claimed “total victory” is necessary – a notion which experts have dismissed as unattainable and a ploy to try and indefinitely prolong the war.

The serious question remains whether or not negotiators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt can present a proposal that would be agreed upon by both Hamas and Israel – something that looks to be incredibly challenging. While the parties seek to address gaps, it is becoming more apparent that Netanyahu’s alleged concerns are tied to his strong political and personal motives. Since the onset of the Gaza War, regional tensions have escalated with rising violence in the West Bank, along the Israel-Lebanon border, and in the Red Sea. A continued failure to initiate a Gaza ceasefire agreement would leave the region at risk of all-out war, as the ongoing and longstanding conflict there has fueled the rise in tensions. As such, the White House and other mediating parties involved view a ceasefire deal as essential to quelling the current state of affairs.

U.K. Suspends Arms Export Licenses to Israel Over International Law Violations

U.K. Suspends Arms Export Licenses to Israel Over International Law Violations

By Daniel Imbornoni

Recently, on September 2nd, United Kingdom (U.K.) Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that the country would be issuing a partial suspension of arms export licenses to Israel. This would consist of 30 of the estimated 350 total licenses being provided. The decision comes in light of growing evidence of the equipment being used to commit flagrant violations of international law, and after a two-month long investigation of the conditions in Gaza, begun by Lammy when he took office back in July. Through this, the U.K. government has since deemed that there is a “clear risk” that some of the items could be used to engage in the aforementioned human rights abuses and breaches of international law. According to U.K. government sources, the license suspension includes an array of items that have seen usage in the ongoing Gaza War, such as fighter aircrafts, helicopters, and drones, as well as equipment that facilitates ground targeting. The remaining items that have not been suspended consist of ones not utilized in the conflict, like training aircraft and naval equipment, though the full list of other items has not been disclosed. In announcing the move, Lammy stated that the U.K. would not include suspension from the multinational F-35 program, citing concerns that doing so might negatively impact international peace and security.

The United Kingdom’s decision comes as opposition to the supply of arms to Israel has had increasing support, particularly among various countries in Europe and North America. This has led numerous nations to reduce or halt the supplying of arms to Israel, including Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands, with an indication that more could follow suit in the coming months. Despite this trend and growing concern regarding Israel’s use of weapons to commit egregious human rights and international law violations, the U.S. government continues to provide arms to Israel and has not indicated that this will be reduced or halted in the near future. Many Americans have increasingly voiced opposition to the supplying of arms to Israel, yet the flow of weapons has persisted. With evidence continuing to mount implicating Israel’s human rights violations, a host of government officials, rights advocates, and others have outlined that the Leahy Law can and should be exercised against Israel in order to halt alarming arms transfers to the country. In spite of this, Israel seems to remain a glaring and problematic exception to the law in the application of America’s foreign policy. Experts, including Former U.S. Senator Leahy (D-VT) himself, have suggested that there is sufficient evidence to apply the law against Israel and therefore support the notion, however the United States appears reluctant to do so.

All of the growing criticism regarding weapons sales which has prompted the United Kingdom’s recent move is also taking place amid the backdrop of a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, one that continues to deteriorate and has drawn international concern. Over 250 humanitarian organizations have called for the cessation of arms transfers to the region since the beginning of this year, coinciding with strong advocacy and efforts aimed at instituting a ceasefire in Gaza. While some countries have been reducing arms transfers, ceasefire talks have continued to stagnate, suggesting that the prospect of reaching an agreement remain challenging in the coming weeks. The ongoing destructive conflict that is still occurring as a result has produced desperate humanitarian conditions that have raised red flags from both organizations and the general public over clear evidence of human rights abuses and breaches of international law. Many of these groups have cited concerns about the declining humanitarian situation in Gaza, including the destruction of homes and other infrastructure, the resulting displacement of millions of civilians, the recent outbreak of polio in the region, and the famine-like conditions that may worsen as food and water become even more scarce. Thus, humanitarian organizations have pointed out that the reduction of arms to the region and a lasting ceasefire would allow for much-needed humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts to take place in order to help alleviate the troubling crisis.

The Concern with a Venezuelan Judge’s Issuing of an Arrest Warrant for Opposition Leader Gonzalez

The Concern with a Venezuelan Judge’s Issuing of an Arrest Warrant for Opposition Leader Gonzalez

By Meg Richards

After widespread reports of a sham July election in Venezuela, and a claimed victory for incumbent President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuelan authorities have now issued an arrest warrant for opposition party leader Edmundo González Urrutia. Other nations, including the United States’ own Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have recognized Gonzalez as the rightful winner of the country’s recent election. Maduro’s government has accused him of “crimes associated with terrorism,” – charges that most agree are trumped up in order to try and quell the growing opposition and political unrest surrounding the controversial presidential election. Additionally, Brazil and Colombia have condemned the arrest warrant in a joint statement issued to Maduro. Brazilian foreign policy advisor Celso Amorim stated in an interview with Reuters that if Venezuelan authorities do go through with Gonzalez’s arrest, it would clearly be a political arrest. Amorim expressed that “There is no denying that there is an authoritarian escalation in Venezuela…We do not feel openness to dialogue, there is a very strong reaction to any comment.”

According to Reuters, the summons were based on a related case investigating a website where members of the opposition posted copies of vote tallies from the contested election. One of these members is Maria Machado, the original face of the opposition before Maduro’s regime barred her from running. Citing exit polls, she said that Gonzalez won by an indisputable majority. While Maduro’s government calls the opposition fascistic, blaming them for the deaths incurred thus far, many others have criticized the regime for repression. International human rights monitor Human Rights Watch says the government has carried out several abuses of power on its citizens following the onset of protests in the aftermath of the contested election. Maduro and his allies have been reportedly encouraging people to report on their relatives, neighbors, coworkers, and anyone else who may oppose his government. Since the disputed election results were announced on July 28th, some 2,400 protesters have been detained and at least 23 have been killed. Those taken into custody have included children, journalists, and political leaders – among others.

Maduro is widely criticized across Venezuela – and many places around the world – for manufacturing Venezuela’s worst economic crisis in years, resulting in the highest inflation rate of any country globally and an estimated 8 million Venezuelans fleeing the country since Maduro took power. He has been indicted by the U.S. on drug trafficking and terrorism charges, as well as being investigated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. Furthermore, recently, the United States has seized the president’s primary aircraft, with The Justice Department (DOJ) alleging that the Dassault Falcon 900EX aircraft – Venezuela’s equivalent to Air Force One – was purchased illegally and smuggled out of the United States, according to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland. The plane is now in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Maduro was not on the plane at the time of its seizure. In a statement from Maduro’s government earlier this week on Monday, the seizure was called “piracy” and an act of U.S. aggression, per the American government’s position on the disputed presidential election that Maduro claimed that he won in July. Matthew Axelrod, an assistant secretary for export enforcement in the U.S. Commerce Department commented that “Let this seizure send a clear message: aircraft illegally acquired from the United States for the benefit of sanctioned Venezuelan officials cannot just fly off into the sunset.” According to NPR, the seizure comes after a violation of U.S. ordered sanctions on Venezuelan companies and individuals, including Maduro, for alleged corruption and human rights abuses.

While U.S. President Biden himself has not taken a hard stance thus far on the highly questionable Venezuelan election results, it is surmised that he inevitably will, given that the U.S. has now seized Maduro’s plane – which will undeniably grow tensions between the two countries. Undoubtedly, actions will continue to be taken against the opposition party domestically, and the ruling regime internationally. Protests and violence have reached a fever pitch, with Maduro scrambling for a distraction and recently declaring Christmas in October. It may be a joke to him, but it’s certainly not amusing to the families whose loved ones won’t be home for the holidays, as their lives were taken by the brutality of Maduro’s oppressive government – not to mention the millions of others whose sons, daughters, cousins, and more had to flee the country they love since Maduro’s ascension to power, or risk being detained for merely speaking out.