The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 258, October 24, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s edition, we provide analysis on the latest swing state presidential polling which shows a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump, look into the circumstances surrounding the leak of Israel’s plan to attack Iran, and examine the devastating impact of the Gaza War on civilians and the Biden administration’s culpability in the perpetuation of the conflict.

Editor: Bassam Tarbush

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Dead Heat in Swing State Presidential Polling

Dead Heat in Swing State Presidential Polling

By Jake Spiller

There are now less than two weeks until Election Day, and the latest polls continue to show a razor-tight race for the White House. With only days left to make their cases to the American people, Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are each making their final pushes. Both campaigns have been embarking on near nonstop visits and media appearances in crucial battleground states. Harris continues to frame her campaign as one for all Americans and has attempted to form a broad coalition which includes many of the “Never Trump” Republicans such as Former U.S. Representative Liz Cheney as well as a few major celebrity endorsements like Taylor Swift and recently, rapper Eminem. On the other hand, Trump is encouraging voters to remember that Harris is the incumbent VP under Biden, and that she is the one tied to the current administration. Trump is seeking to appeal to Americans that are disgruntled with President Biden’s handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration, and in doing so link Biden with Harris.

The latest polls have the race between Harris and Trump as neck and neck. For national polls in the preceding days, FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a +1.7 lead, and 270toWin shows an even tighter +1.4 lead for the incumbent vice president. While national polls have their value, providing a countrywide picture, the real battleground is in the critical swing states. Given that the Electoral College will decide the winner instead of the national popular vote, the polling in these states is rightfully dominating the headlines. The circumstances in these states are even more of a dead heat. As previously mentioned, FiveThirtyEight has Harris with a narrow lead nationally. However, out of 100 election simulations, they have Trump winning the electoral college 52 times and Harris winning in 48 of them – with a less than 1-in-a-100 chance of a 269-269 tie. The seven key states garnering the majority of the upcoming election’s focus are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is receiving the most attention of all, as it has 19 electoral votes – more than any other battleground state – and is showing a near tie in polling. The state is viewed as being of utmost importance for both campaign’s respective paths to potential victory. Trump won the state in 2016, and then Biden flipped it in 2020. For the Democratic Party, their last candidate to win the presidential election without Pennsylvania was Harry S. Truman all the way back in 1948.

Across the swing states, Trump is leading by 0.4% in Michigan according to 270toWin, while Harris is leading by 0.1% according to FiveThirtyEight. Polling shows more of the same extremely tight margins in the rest of the battleground states as well. When averaging FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin together, Harris is shown winning in Wisconsin by 0.45% and in Nevada by 0.25%. The polls then have Trump winning North Carolina by 0.7%, Arizona and Georgia by 1.8%, and Pennsylvania by 0.35%. If these predictions are perfectly accurate, unlikely as this might be, this would give Trump 296 electoral votes and the Electoral College win, with Harris falling short at 242. However, we know from Trump’s shocking win in 2016 and the Democrats’ surprising success in the 2022 midterms, that we cannot rely so heavily on polling – especially considering that these all fall well within the margin of error. What the numbers ultimately tell us is that the election will most certainly be decided by which campaign can better mobilize voters in the seven main swing states where only a few thousand votes will determine the outcome.

The issues weighing most on citizens’ minds will also be extremely significant for both turnout and which campaign can win over vital independent voters. As it is in most elections, the state of the economy and inflation are issues of high importance, along with others such as healthcare, immigration, and U.S. policy regarding the Gaza War. Recent surveys show Democrats having the edge in voter confidence in areas like social equality, climate change/environment, education, and healthcare; while Republicans do so on the issues of employment, immigration, law & order, and national security. The single biggest issue to most voters appears to be the economy. Trump has vowed to return the nation to the economic success seen during the early part of his presidency prior to the pandemic, while Harris has promised to tackle high prices by taking on corporate greed and, at the same time, offer opportunities to grow and strengthen the middle class by providing loans to entrepreneurs to start and grow their businesses. In the end, it may come down to whether or not most voters see Harris as her own candidate who will fulfill her promises or as a continuation of the Biden administration. One thing that is definite is that on November 5th, all eyes will be fixated on the seven essential swing states that will win the presidency for either Harris or Trump.

Leak of Israel’s Plan to Attack Iran

Leak of Israel’s Plan to Attack Iran

By Daniel Imbornoni

The United States has launched a probe following an unauthorized leak of classified documents which detail Israel’s anticipated attack on Iran. The materials were posted last Thursday by an account on the Telegram platform, with both documents marked “top secret” and dated October 15th and October 16th. According to news outlets such as CNN, one item is from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and discusses Israel’s plans to move munitions around; while the other is attributed to the National Security Agency (NSA) and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles – something believed to be in preparation for a strike against Iran. U.S. intelligence officials have also confirmed the authenticity of the documents. The implications of the leak have elicited concern relating to the security of U.S. intelligence, with one official commenting that while “the content is not that significant…the fact that there was a leak is a lot more significant.”

The nature of the leak and its timing has led to speculation about the identity of the leaker(s), how the documents were obtained, and the veracity of the information contained within them. Experts, such as Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, have suggested possible theories regarding potential actors involved in the leak and their motivations. Some others have suggested that given the relative unimportance of the information contained within the documents, this may have been an authorized leak – even by the Israeli government itself in an effort to incite trepidation about the impending attack. Whether or not the leak was intentional, the identity of who was behind it remains an open question. So far, investigators are trying to determine if the leak was carried out by a member of the U.S. intelligence community, or obtained by alternative methods such as a hack. This has fueled further unease over the possibility that any other intelligence information may have been compromised.

One of the things that analysts and investigators are considering is whether this could have been a psy-op attack by hackers tied to the Iranian regime. In the past, Iranian officials have hacked U.S. government and government-related entities, most recently the 2024 Trump presidential campaign roughly a month ago. This theory suggests that while Iran may be incapable of totally preventing damage from the anticipated attack, a leak could potentially forestall it. Some have also put forth the idea that the leak may have been committed by a United States ally, as the documents were available to the Five Eyes (FVEY) – the international Anglosphere intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The motive behind this possible scenario, it has been suggested, could be the result of frustration from U.S. allies with the Biden administration’s failure to restrain the Netanyahu government’s belligerent behavior – to the point that they decided to leak the information as an act of disapproval.

Others have also hinted that the leak may have been an inside job by a member of the U.S. intelligence community, and the result of internal dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s Gaza War policy and its lack of success in curtailing the destructive Israeli war efforts. This could have been carried out as an act of protest regarding the role that Israel has played in escalating regional hostilities and to derail the expected Israeli attack against Iran or to, at the bare minimum, at least try to indefinitely delay it given that it is something which peace advocates are on the edge about and understandably fear might trigger the onset of all-out war in the Middle East. The fact that the leak came mere days after President Biden confirmed knowledge of when and how Israel may carry out its attack lends some credence to this as a possible motivation behind it.

Earlier this week, the FBI announced that it had opened an investigation into the leak, and that it would be first primarily focusing on individuals who had authorized access to the documents.

The Gaza War’s Civilian Casualties and the Biden Administration

The Gaza War’s Civilian Casualties and the Biden Administration

By NIF Staff

Biden administration officials certainly share culpability for the perpetuation of Israel’s longstanding Gaza War which has decimated the Palestinian territory and had a devastating impact on its civilian population. The mishandling of the conflict and an inability to put an end to it has resulted in the killing of tens of thousands, the displacement of more than 90% of citizens, catastrophic levels of food insecurity and other resource shortages, the Israeli impeding of humanitarian aid, and the destruction of at least two-thirds of infrastructure in the besieged enclave. Despite all of this – in addition to overwhelming evidence of Israeli war crimes and human rights violations – military and financial aid has continued to flow, with the Biden administration failing to heed the appropriate calls from human rights activists to curtail support to Israel in light of what is taking place. Furthermore, in recent months, U.S. officials have pushed aside, disregarded, and inadequately responded to a host of Israeli escalations and provocations which risk spurring the outbreak of all-out war in the region.

Dissatisfaction over the Biden administration’s Gaza War policy is exemplified by the fact that numerous U.S. officials have resigned from their positions in protest during the past year. Among other things, many of these individuals have cited the growing public concern regarding unconditional U.S. weapons transfers to Israel due to their use in committing egregious war crimes and human rights abuses, and how government officials have not adjusted their policies to suitably address this. They have also criticized the administration for voicing the importance of safeguarding human rights, but not initiating actions which align with this purported value. One of their other major qualms is with the blatant Israeli obstruction of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and how until recently, U.S. officials had not been forceful enough in calling this out. As has been outlined by human rights activists, these former administration officials that have decided to resign merely want Gaza War policy to be fair and rooted in reality. Doing so requires ensuring that arms transfers comply with U.S. and international law, and that the United States is not complicit in the flagrant Israeli violations that are taking place in Gaza and elsewhere. High-profile resignations include that of Josh Paul, who left the U.S. State Department late last year after 11 years of service, decrying U.S. military and financial support as a blank check with a lack of regard for the abusive manner in which this has been used.

The failure to achieve a lasting ceasefire agreement in Gaza has not only resulted in a continuation of the devastating conflict there, but it has also paved the way for other Israeli escalations and provocations in the region that leave the Middle East on the brink of all-out war. Israel’s indiscriminate bombardment of Lebanon and its tit-for-tat with Iran – which began with the early April Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – has seen the expansion of hostilities outside of Gaza, and observers now fear that the imminent anticipated Israeli attack on Iran could deteriorate circumstances in the region even further. An all-out war between Israel and Iran would quickly ignite a fire that would consume the entire region. This has prompted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to make yet another diplomatic trip to the Middle East this week, but as long as Israel keeps demonstrating a desire to perpetuate hostilities and the Biden administration enables its ability to do so, a ceasefire deal will unfortunately more than likely remain out of reach.

For the United States to truly abide by the values that it espouses to, like the protection of human rights, it must take action to halt arms transfers that are used to commit egregious violations against civilians. It is clear that those within the administration hear the relevant domestic and international voices calling for an arms embargo, and can follow suit with the other countries that have already restricted their weapons transfers to Israel due to the evidence of their military human rights violations and war crimes. The United States’ influence on the global stage is undoubtable, and therefore, it should be a leader in initiating principled, moral, and responsible policies – using its leverage and clout to put a stop to the seemingly endless violence and destruction in Gaza. Not doing so risks diminishing its credibility and soft power among much of the world.