Editor: Bassam Tarbush
Written By Cameron Reynolds
This past Tuesday July 23rd, The Brookings Institution hosted an event to discuss the future of trans-Atlantic security and Finland’s recent membership to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The event analyzed the threat of Putin’s Russia, the ongoing War in Ukraine, and the international dynamics that surround Finland and its southern neighbor of Russia. The panel for the dialogue featured H.E. Mikko Hautala, Ambassador of the Republic of Finland to the United States and Former Ambassador to Russia; Michael O’Hanlon, Director and Senior Fellow for The Strobe Talbott Center on Security, Strategy, and Technology at The Brookings Institution; and Constanze Stelzenmuller, Director and Senior Fellow for the Center on the United States and Europe at The Brookings Institution – who moderated the event.
Ambassador Hautala began the discussion by addressing the War in Ukraine. The ambassador firmly stated why he hesitates to predict when the conflict could end. He acknowledged the extensive economic capabilities of Russia, which will allow them to continue this war of attrition. Russia’s economic strength, coupled with the long-term support to Ukraine pledged by NATO members, will allow each nation to adequately support their military efforts. The recent NATO Summit in Washington D.C. sent a strong signal to Russia that support for Ukraine will persist as long as necessary. Hautala believes that Russian leadership will concede the war only when they believe it is no longer winnable. War of attrition can often cause controversy amongst the international community, as nations may disagree on how much support to give and for how long. Russia’s advancement into Ukraine has triggered European nations to begin revamping their defense industries after years of dismantling their militaries.
The ambassador proceeded to talk extensively about Finland’s national security and dealings with Russia. Finland gained membership to NATO in April of 2023, being the second-most recent nation to join. The country has already achieved the required defense spending with 2.4 percent of its GDP going to its military. Finland believes that if they uphold their strong defense spending and capabilities, it will help to deter Russia. Recently, Finland has also experienced occasional airspace violations and GPS jamming from Russia. Hautala asserted that he believes Russia will be a threat for at least the next decade. Without permanent solutions including the development of democratic practices and institutions, a single autocratic figure like Putin will continue to hold immense power.
Additionally, Hautala discussed the future of NATO and the potential implications of a new U.S. presidential administration. He acknowledged the anticipated distancing from NATO by the United States should Former President Trump retake the White House. The ambassador then made a few closing points that he wanted to emphasize. First, more needs to be done to combat Russia despite U.S. political interests. Second, continued development of the defense industry in European industrialized nations will be crucial in containing the threat of Putin. Lastly, Europe should pool economic resources in order to reduce its unhealthy dependence on the U.S. in terms of defense. He concluded that preparing for the long game with Russia is essential in outlasting them, like Europe and the U.S. have done in the past.
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