The National Interest Foundation Newsletter

Issue 245, July 19, 2024

Welcome to our NIF Newsletter. In this week’s latest edition, we analyze the assassination attempt of Former President Trump and its possible implications on the upcoming election, delve into the numerous recent Israeli strikes against civilian sites in Gaza, and examine the notable developments from the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Editor: Bassam Tarbush

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Assassination Attempt of Trump and Its Possible Implications on the Upcoming Election

Assassination Attempt of Trump and Its Possible Implications on the Upcoming Election

Written By Camille Carter

The safety of American presidents and former presidents has been one of the main focuses of the United States Secret Service since its inception. This responsibility was tested when Former President Donald Trump took the stage at the Butler Farms Fairgrounds in Pennsylvania for his 43rd campaign appearance this past Saturday, July 13th. While making remarks only 8 minutes after taking the stage and beginning his address, shots rang out within the crowd and Former President Trump clutched his ear. Within seconds, Secret Service members swarmed the stage, covering Trump. Over the next minute, several shots were heard, one set injured some spectators and killed another while the others were the shots of Secret Service snipers that ultimately killed the gunman. Trump was then escorted off of the stage and as he was led away from the scene, raised his fist to signify to the crowd that he was okay.

Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state, was the backdrop for an incident that drew concern due to some major questions regarding how this was allowed to transpire. While some have defended the Secret Service stating that it is nearly impossible to secure outdoor events of that nature, others have not been so forgiving. These feelings were only intensified when it was later revealed that the very building used in the assassination attempt had been identified as a potential risk days before by those responsible for assessing the venue. Adding to the scrutiny, reports have recently surfaced that rally attendees had warned not only local law enforcement, but the Secret Service as well, of a man with a gun on the roof. An officer went to check out the roof, but returned for reasons unsure. All of this has led to an investigation being opened by both the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Congress, aimed at figuring out how and why the former president’s security detail failed.

In the aftermath of the attempted assassination, many people have turned their attention to how Thomas Matthew Crooks – the shooter – was even allowed to gain entry to the roof, let alone do it while armed with a gun. When sitting presidents or former presidents go to speak at large events like this, the Secret Service secures a perimeter ranging anywhere from 100-300 feet. Typically, the Secret Service works jointly with local law enforcement, divvying up the duties to ensure the security and safety of the event. The building where Crooks fired his shots was roughly 400 feet away from the former president’s podium. The Secret Service claims that this distance took it from its top priority list, and made it the local law enforcement’s job to clear and secure. However, local authorities have continued to state that the Secret Service ultimately had the final call on security matters, shifting the blame back to the service and off of themselves.

As details emerged about the incident, some information regarding Crooks began to come to light, but there are still other aspects that remain unknown. Crooks was a 2022 graduate of Bethel Park High School and while he was a registered Republican, his overall political leanings were somewhat hazy given that federal campaign finance reports also showed that he donated money to a progressive political action committee (PAC). Thus, there were no hints of particularly strong and fervent political beliefs that would suggest a motive for an attempted assassination. It was reported that even after the FBI looked into several of Crooks’ personal belongings and interviewed more than 100 people, there was no clear understanding as to why he opened fire during the Trump rally, as he provided no footprint of reasons for targeting the former president.

While the dust continues to settle, another aspect that has drawn considerable attention for many observers is how the attempted assassination could potentially impact the upcoming November election. When Former President Ronald Reagan was shot shortly after being elected to office, the incident helped garner sympathy from the American population and led to increased approval ratings – albeit only for a short period of time but he did still ultimately win re-election. Some have wondered if the same could happen for Trump, especially considering how the photo taken of him just seconds after being shot with his fist in the air has quickly gone viral and made its way to a plethora of merchandise. However, Christopher Zorn, a professor of political science and sociology at Penn State University expressed in an email to USA Today that “While the event may lead to some additional support for Former President Trump, it also took attention away from the intense scrutiny on President Biden and the Democratic Party in the last week or two…The result may thus be to help both candidates in different ways, with the possible overall effect being relatively slight.”

Helping to support this sentiment is the idea that in our current news cycle climate, a new development comes almost every day, so the cultural conscious focus is not likely to stay fixated on this long enough for it to concretely alter the election. As one commentator aptly put it, many additional things will happen in the coming months that will capture voters’ attention, including another planned debate between Trump and Biden. He added that “We are building the scaffolding of whatever the political climate will be in late October, and whatever event happens then will be the one that is sort of the tipping point…It’s unlikely that the election will ever look like it’s going to be anything but close.” A multitude of analysts agree with this perspective, noting that the lack of outright political motivation driving the crime combined with the time remaining until the November election for other campaign developments to transpire make it less likely to sway large numbers of the American population. Instead, most agree that Trump could see a small initial boost from the incident, but that even if he does, it is probable that this would only be temporary.

As investigations continue and more information is uncovered, the repercussions, however, could remain a topic of national discussion and intrigue. For now, while the incident may have momentarily shifted public sympathy and media focus, experts remind Americans that its long-term impact on the political landscape is still unclear.

Numerous Recent Israeli Strikes Against Civilian Sites in Gaza

Numerous Recent Israeli Strikes Against Civilian Sites in Gaza

Written By Sheyanne Barr

The grueling and longstanding war taking place in the Gaza Strip continues to violate the human rights of thousands of innocent civilians. In the last week, Israel has carried out numerous strikes against civilian sites in Gaza, adding to its growing list of war crimes. From striking schools being used to shelter the displaced to lobbing bombs directly into civilian camps where families gathered and children slept, Israel’s destructive war under Netanyahu has been rife with human rights abuses and war crimes. The Israeli military offensive in Gaza has resulted in nearly 40,000 deaths, and the complete and utter destruction of much of the besieged Palestinian enclave.

With the war raging on since last October and causing so much wanton destruction, human rights violations, UN casualties, and civilian population suffering, one must wonder what could prompt a halt to the catastrophic hostilities. The harmful tactics used by Israel have not helped attempts at de-escalation either. As of now, Hamas still holds over 100 known hostages, and efforts to initiate an immediate and lasting ceasefire have been consistently derailed. Many fair-minded analysts have contended that Israel has intentionally done so and sabotaged any potential deal by utilizing methods such as the introduction of new demands late on in the negotiation process. Israeli officials have shown a consistent pattern of retreating from or hindering negotiations as possible agreements draw closer, and have been credibly accused of obstructing progress that could bring an end to the conflict on multiple occasions in recent months. Despite Hamas’ holding of hostages, Israel has indiscriminately bombed 30 out of 36 hospitals in Gaza, and deliberately destroyed buildings that were in supposed “safe zones.”

Earlier this month in July, Israel conducted one specifically heinous act by striking the al-Mawasi area. This was designated as a “safe zone,” and civilians had therefore gathered there. This attack killed at least 90 people and injured 300 others, and unfortunately, was only one of several reprehensible acts conducted by Israeli forces in a short period of time. Israel also managed to strike five schools, including a United Nations-run school in the Nuseirat area, which killed 17 and wounded scores of others. The Nuseirat attack, in particular, highlights the blatant disregard for human life that Israel continues to display. The school, which is in another one of the designated “safe” areas, was hosting several families and their children who were outside playing and visible to any aircraft at the time. Israeli airstrikes continue to kill innocent civilians and non-combatants in “safe zones,” and have shown no sign of stopping.

Israel has bombed an estimated 70% of United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) facilities in the region, consistently and repeatedly carrying these out against the civilian population, blocking and at times striking aid trucks, and destroying much of Gaza’s infrastructure. The risk of famine continues to rise in the region, which is not helped by the aid delays and logistic troubles presented by the ongoing conflict. By all counts, the label of genocidal actions and systematic targeting placed upon what Israel is doing in cases at both the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) appear to have merit.

The supposed justifications given by Israel for its abusive actions have been inaccurate and wholly ineffective at explaining and waving away the truth of what is happening in Gaza. Of course, Hamas has committed its own series of atrocities, but the inexcusable Israeli military actions combined with the destructive capability of the weapons used when it comes to striking so-called “targets” is appalling. These egregious strikes have not only destroyed over half of all buildings in Gaza, but they have claimed the lives of innocent civilians and those who have bravely chosen to report on and assist the Palestinian people. Around 150 journalists and over 200 UN aid workers have been killed during the conflict, in yet another major red flag for how Israeli forces have carried out the war.

With the tidal wave of evidence, global admonishment, and formal legal reprisals, it should make little sense for U.S. armaments to continue flowing to Israel. However, just recently, the U.S. has agreed to resume sending 500-pound bombs to Israel. This comes as part of the agreed-upon $1 billion in weapons that the current administration has decided to send. The delivery of the new ordinance to Israel despite the array of proof of its major war crimes and human rights violations will only serve to potentially escalate the conflict further, lead to more civilian casualties, and risk emboldening bellicose behavior which could manifest into wider-scale hostilities in the region.

Notable Developments from the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee

Notable Developments from the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee

Written By Cameron Reynolds

Roughly 2,400 delegates assembled together this week in Milwaukee for the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Milwaukee is the largest city in the important battleground state of Wisconsin, where Former President Trump currently holds a slight lead in the polls over President Biden. At the convention, delegates awarded 2,387 votes to Trump, officially solidifying him as the Republican nominee for president. The vote was merely viewed as a formality, since Trump had long unofficially secured the nomination several months ago back in March. The former president had obtained an estimated 2,243 delegates during the course of the primary process, easily surpassing the 1,125 needed to be the presumptive Republican nominee. Certain delegates are “pledged” based on their state’s voting results, while others are “unpledged” and can cast a vote for anyone. The four-day convention began Monday, just two days following the attempted assassination of Former President Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies were all on high alert at the RNC as a result of the recent incident. The FBI, Secret Service, and local police departments conducted a joint threat assessment prior to the start of the convention. No conclusive or specific threats were flagged by the agencies, and the Secret Service’s RNC coordinator stated over the weekend that “we’re not anticipating any changes to our operational security plans for this event.” The planning of RNC security had been in the works for a year-and-a-half according to officials, and Milwaukee Police Chief Jeffrey Norman noted that Wisconsin’s open-carry laws prevent law enforcement from restricting guns anywhere in the city. The convention also took place in the aftermath of Miami U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissing Trump’s classified documents case. Judge Cannon ruled that Special Counsel Jack Smith was unlawfully appointed to his role as head of the prosecution and that he did not have the authority to bring forth the case, prompting the Justice Department to state that it would appeal the decision.

Just minutes before the convention kicked off, Former President Trump announced that U.S. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) would be joining the ticket as his running mate. Vance was elected to Congress in 2022 following a relatively tight race with Democratic nominee and Former U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH). Some analysts have pointed out that Trump’s pick of Vance seems to be aimed at appealing to both younger voters and critical general election ones in the Midwest. The decision could have notable potential implications for U.S. foreign policy if Republicans retake the White House, as Vance manifests the “America First” approach espoused by Trump. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Vance argued that the United States should stop all financial support to Ukraine, and expressed his stark disapproval with America’s European allies at the Munich Security Conference held earlier in the year. Commentators have also drawn attention to the Ohio senator’s past outspoken distaste for the former president, whereby Vance frequently criticized Trump during the latter’s first presidential run in 2016, even writing in an op-ed for the New York Times that “Mr. Trump is unfit for our nation’s highest office.”

During the first night of the convention, the GOP used a lineup of black and female Republicans in an attempt to portray a deep and diversified set of leaders. Some speakers broke away from Trump’s typical hyperbolic and divisive rhetoric, while others such as U.S. Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) went on the attack, labeling Democrats’ agenda as “a clear and present danger to America.” Tuesday night displayed a more conventional Trump message, and the theme used by speakers was “Make America Safe Once Again.” GOP members such as U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) frequently correlated Democrats to crime and illegal immigration, and reinforced their main argument that the United States was safer under the Trump administration. Anti-crime activist Madeline Brame played a prominent role as well, verbally slamming Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who brought the 34 felony counts against Trump. In addition to featuring elected officials and politicians, Republicans clearly held a desire to showcase “everyday Americans” at the RNC as well.

Trump’s main primary election rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis both spoke at the RNC, despite their recent fierce political battles with the former president. Haley previously claimed that she would not be at the convention, nor vote for Trump in the upcoming November election. Yet, last week, she urged her 97 delegates to vote for Trump, and revealed on Sunday that she would be a scheduled speaker at the RNC. Both Haley and DeSantis publicly endorsed Trump at the convention, and there was a clear attempt by Republicans to demonstrate that they are unified – especially at a contentious time for Democrats regarding the candidacy of President Biden. The RNC concluded last night with Former President Trump’s formal acceptance of the Republican Party’s nomination and an address to the convention, his first public remarks since last Saturday’s assassination attempt.